Two possible paths: towards the west, Europe; to the east, Russia. Moldova (2.5 million inhabitants) celebrates this Sunday a double electoral event that will measure the extent of Russian influence in the former Soviet republic, as well as the state of health of Europeanism in Moldovans. Voters are called to the polls to, on the one hand, vote in the presidential elections, with the current head of state, Maia Sandu, 52, as the favorite, and, on the other, show in a referendum whether they support or reject the process open accession to the European Union. According to the latest polls, around 65% of voters are in favor of checking the yes box in the consultation. However, the long shadow of Moscow weighs on the two elections.. The Moldovan Information and Security Service estimates that Russia spent more than 50 million euros last year to try to influence the polls, including by buying votes.
The referendum ballot asks: “Do you support amending the Constitution for the accession of the Republic of Moldova to the European Union?” The affirmative vote in this consultation would not only shield the accession process by law, but would shift towards the West the identity of a country between two waters since it obtained independence from the USSR in 1991. “The positive vote,” he states in an exchange Post office Orysia Lutsevych, of the Chatham House analysis centre, “will indicate to Brussels that there is strong popular support for accession. “The ‘no’ would undermine the negotiations and could stall the integration process.” Of the 15 parties that have campaigned, only two (the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova and Renaissance) have advocated negative suffrage.
Nestled between Ukraine, to the west, and Romania, to the east, and landlocked, Moldova is at the bottom of the Eastern European economies, heavily dependent on its agriculture and energy from Russiahas aroused growing interest in the chancelleries of the Old Continent in the face of Vladimir Putin’s imperialist maneuvers. An example of this duality is the race for the head of state, in which Sandu, at the head of the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), is the only candidate among the main candidates who has no past ties with Moscow and who defends openly the commitment to reach Brussels. Last Thursday, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, traveled to the country’s capital, Chisinau, with a package of 1.8 billion euros under her arm to promote reforms and growth. The EU’s commitment is clear.
Moldova has already traveled a part of this journey towards the Twenty-Seven. In line with what Ukraine did after the start of the Russian invasion of its eastern region a decade ago, Chisinau signed association and trade agreements with Brussels in 2014. As was the case with kyiv, the rapprochement towards the EU took elephant steps until the war launched by Moscow – in February 2022 – accelerated things. Only a month later he would formalize his application for membership. Negotiations between the parties have been open since last December.
Sandu, a former World Bank employee, has been the face in these four years of mandate of a Moldova with a European vocation, far from the Soviet trail, the oligarchy and ties with Moscow. A fresh air that served him well in 2021, a year after his victory in the presidential elections, to also obtain a parliamentary majority at the polls. According to the survey published on October 7 by the Aspen Institute and Watchdog Moldova, the current head of state would have 36.1% of the support to renew her position, compared to 10.1% from the former attorney general Alexander Stoianoglo, of the Party of the Socialists; 7.5% from the populist Renato Usatii, and 4.1% from Irina Vlah, an independent candidate and former governor of the Gagauzia region.
These last three would fit into that already very widespread German label of Putinversteherthose who understand Putin. That is, pro-Russian political leaders who, in this case, have also known how to avoid any sympathy for the invaded neighbor on the other side of the border. The pro-Kremlin narrative has not, however, been a protagonist in the electoral campaign. Whatever the post-election scenario, if no candidate manages to exceed 50% of the votes, the first two would face each other in the second round on November 3. Although the head of state has limited powers, he is responsible for making a proposal to the prime minister, which is then ratified by Parliament.
The Ukraine effect
Russian aggression in Ukraine will be very present in the polling stations in Moldova – voting is also done abroad, where 1.2 million nationals live, although only just over 1,800 voters have registered. The offensive hit the country’s already vulnerable economy doubly. First, for the arrival of thousands of refugees who demanded assistance —Moldova immediately had the EU aid and humanitarian agencies—. However, the country was and has been a place of passage for the displaced, and only 120,000 have requested asylum. Secondly, Moscow took advantage of the conflict to reduce gas supplies, forcing Chisinau to buy in Romania and raise the bill. In the last two years, all of this has led to protests in the streets, from sectors of society prone to rapprochement with Moscow.
“Russia is actively interfering in the outcome of the elections in Moldova,” says Lutsevych of Chatham House. “Their objective, as in Georgia (which holds elections on the 26th), is to hinder the country’s integration into the EU. “It would lose control over Chisinau, which it previously exercised, creating a frozen conflict in Transnistria (the power of this lever is decreasing).” The analyst at this think tank, based in London, refers to the strip between Moldova and Ukraine, governed by pro-Russian separatists after declaring its independence in the early nineties and in which between 1,500 and 2,000 uniformed personnel are deployed under orders from the Kremlin. As the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has repeated on several occasions, more than 200,000 citizens with Russian passports live in that territory. That is, half of the enclave’s population. The authorities of Transnistria asked Russia for protection last February in the face of “pressure” from Chisinau, especially on the economic level.
In public, Moscow maintains a measured narrative about the elections. Under the table, however, it has exerted its pressure through a hybrid offensive: with propaganda, disinformation campaigns on the networks and the action of individuals such as the oligarch Ilan Shor, resident in Russia, sentenced in absentia to 15 years for extracting almost a million euros from the Moldovan banking system a decade ago. According to security forces, this tycoon – born in Israel, but of Moldovan nationality – has more than 130,000 voters on his payroll ahead of this Sunday’s elections. This Thursday, the Moldovan police reported that they had discovered a plot to send to Russia and train citizens who would subsequently participate in protests and disorders in Moldova. Behind the plot would be, according to the authorities, Shor.
