If further proof is needed that electorates around the world are changing in dramatic fashion, look at the election results in British Columbia.
Although the final results from Sunday’s vote won’t be confirmed for several days — because of the need for judicial recounts in two constituencies where the governing NDP won by less than 100 votes — the broader shift in voter dynamics is clear for anyone to see.
In short, an NDP government with a self-described “progressive agenda” lost ground to a hastily convened, far-right Conservative party that ran a campaign rooted in regressive policies.
No electorate is static. Voter support is, in general, constantly churning in lockstep with economic or social conditions and the fiercely marketed themes of political rhetoric.
In Canada, the combined effects of the pandemic, high inflation and housing unaffordability have combined to shake up the electorate in new and somewhat alarming ways. Now, voters are crossing traditional lines of age and gender, and ignoring issues in pursuit of a change in government.
The B.C. election is an excellent case in point.
Although 154,000 more British Columbians voted in this election, voter turnout only went up three points to 57.4 per cent, a stunningly low result given the drama that played out during this campaign.
The breakdown of that support, however, shifted massively.
Leader David Eby’s New Democrats received just shy of 909,000 votes, which was 44.72 per cent of all votes cast, and 10,000 more than they received in 2020. However, the NDP lost nine seats and saw its share of the popular vote fall by three per cent in the face of a stunning comeback by the BC Conservative Party, led by John Rustad.
Formed out of the ashes of the former BC Liberal party and the upstart BC United Party, Rustad’s Tories won 37 more seats than the Liberals did in 2020, and saw an increase of 251,000 votes, a 40 per cent increase in support overall.
Most surprising was the result posted by the BC Green Party. Although it held its two seats, Sonia Furstenau’s party got 117,000 fewer votes than in 2020, and saw its share of the popular vote dip by nearly seven points.
Another surprise was the change in the profile of a Conservative voter. A Leger poll taken at the beginning of October found Rustad’s Conservatives had the support of 49 per cent of female respondents and 47 per cent of voters aged 18-34. Women and younger voters, who had been a huge advantage for the NDP, decided to go in a different direction this time.
A result like that is pretty counter-intuitive when you break the campaign down on an issue-by-issue basis.
For example, although it is a divisive issue, the NDP’s sexual orientation and gender identity toolkit for public schools was supported by roughly half of British Columbians while less than a third of British Columbians steadfastly opposed it, according to the poll.
So, how could Rustad, who accused the NDP of “sexualizing” education and promised to remove the program, have done so well running against the current government on such an important issue?
Rustad also rejects climate science. Pre-campaign polls in B.C. consistently showed that more than 80 per cent of respondents believe climate change is real, is caused by humans and it negatively affects their lives.
Polls late in the campaign explain, in part, where the shift started. Health care and affordability became the dominant issues for B.C. voters, with social issues and climate change falling precipitously in importance.
That puts any party that governed through the pandemic and the subsequent spike in inflation in a difficult position.
Despite the fact that high inflation is a global phenomenon brought on by the pandemic, supply chain disruptions and opportunistic greed, angry voters are more than willing to punish any government seeking re-election. It’s not just here: in the United States and Europe, the rise of younger, angrier and more right-wing voters is gaining electoral leverage.
This eclipsing concern about affordability in large part explains why younger voters are flocking to right-wing parties that saturate them with weakly constructed arguments about the causes of inflation and the culpability of government. Younger citizens may not understand the vagaries of economics, but they know that rents are high and houses are priced out of reach.
And while climate change is still a concern, it’s not as much of a concern as the cost of living. Hence the drop in support for the BC Greens.
The Eby government had more than its share of misfires in the last four years, and thus had created doubt in the mind of voters about whether it deserved to be re-elected.
There is no getting away from the fact that the majority of British Columbians who support the issues on which the NDP were strongest decided either not to vote, or to choke back their concern on those issues and vote for change.
Voters who prioritized change over issues be warned: whatever government Rustad puts together, it will be the government that you, the newly structured electorate, deserve.
Dan Lett
Columnist
Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986. Read more about Dan.
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