Note: Week 9 of the college football season is here. Make your picks for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero using this link or with the embedded form at the bottom of the column. Each week, winners of the 6-0 Challenge will be celebrated in Joe’s weekly newsletter, “SPORTS! Happy Hour.”
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Celebrated from coast to coast by sports fans, bag men, bartenders, mafia kings and mathematicians, Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is the greatest resource for college football shenanigans on the internet. This is the 15th season for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero in its various forms.
This is the second season of the grand experiment for readers to get in on the action. Sign up for Joe’s newsletter, “SPORTS! Happy Hour,” to keep up with who wins the 6-0 Challenge each week. Make your and compare your wits against the experts (and Joe). Win the 6-0 Challenge and enjoy eternal glory. The newsletter comes out every Thursday afternoon at 4:20 p.m. Enter your email to subscribe.
Joe subscribes to ol’ Billy Shakespeare’s philosophy of picking football games. “Jesters do oft prove prophets,” mused the Great Bard. What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a gift to society.
THE GRAND EXPERIMENT
Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com. What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? It’s a gift for college football fans every week in the state where college football is like a religion.
The Pro is Lee Sterling, a noted numbers man of national success. Sterling features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but The Pro fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe and the Hero. Joe is just a hack and a slacker who everyone loves to hate.
No one works harder than Hero Ben Abercrombie. Ben played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben and show him some love.
Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him with signs on ESPN College GameDay.
6-0 CHALLENGE
Click the link here to make your picks for Week 9 of the 6-0 Challenge. We’re also embedding the picks form each week in Joe’s Tuesday column on the SEC and here in Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero. Weekly winners of the 6-0 Challenge will be announced in Joe’s newsletter. Sign up for the newsletter here and scroll down to make your picks at the bottom of this post. Remember, picks are against the spread.
LAST WEEK
Joe: 2-4 straight up, 2-4 against the spread
Pro: 4-2 straight up, 3-3 against the spread
Hero: 4-2 straight up, 3-3 against the spread
Notes: Pro and Hero nailed their Tennessee picks. Joe hit on Auburn’s gutsy cover, and regrets nailing his LSU pick.
SEASON TOTALS
Joe: 24-24 straight up, 18-30 against the spread
Pro: 33-15 straight up, 26-22 against the spread
Hero: 30-12 straight up, 19-29 against the spread
Notes: Joe is learning how to write songs as a backup plan.
Navy is undefeated at 6-0 and has never lost at MetLife Stadium.(AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
No.12 Notre Dame (6-1) at No.24 Navy (6-0)
When: 11 a.m., Sat.
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
TV: ABC
Series: Notre Dame leads 80-13-1.
Spread: Notre Dame by 12.
Total: 51.5
Trendy: Bookies know that the Middies are 9-0 against the spread in their last nine games following a straight-up victory of more than 20 points.
NAVY GAME NOTES: Navy is 2-0 all-time at MetLife Stadium, upsetting Notre Dame 35-17 in 2010 and beating Army 17-13 in 2021.
Joe says: Notre Dame has righted the season, but Navy is no joke. Quarterback Blake Horvath can do it with his legs and his arm. Navy’s 269 points across its first six games are 57 more than it scored in all 12 games last year (212). Can Navy’s offense control time of possession? That’s the game and this one could be Navy’s ticket to the College Football Playoff. Down goes the Irish. Damn the torpedoes and full speed ahead. Go Navy!
Joe’s pick: Navy 26, Notre Dame 24
Pro says: The biggest unknown is the strength of Navy. The only better-than-average team they have played this season is Memphis. Notre Dame has already beaten Texas A&M and Louisville. Navy quarterback Blake Horvath has run for 10 touchdowns so far this season but the big surprise is he’s thrown for 10 touchdowns. I can’t remember a Navy quarterback even throwing for half that number in an entire season. I bet they mention former Navy quarterback Roger Staubach quite a few times on Saturday because this Horvath kid is that special. Grab the points! The Midshipmen might shock the world!
Pro’s pick: Navy 26 Notre Dame 23
Hero says: Navy brings an undefeated record into this huge game with the Irish. The Midshipmen really have not been challenged up to this point, but Notre Dame’s top 10 ranked defense will be a challenge for Navy’s outstanding dual threat quarterback Blake Horvath. Navy’s offense should be able to move the football some, limit possessions for the Fighting Irish and keep the game close. The Notre Dame offense led by Fairhope, Alabama native Riley Leonard should be able to pass on the Navy pass defense and outscore the Midshipmen.
Hero’s pick: Notre Dame 31, Navy 20
The Illinois defense gang tackles Michigan running back Donovan Edwards during the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, in Champaign, Ill.AP
No.20 Illinois (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) at No.1 Oregon (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten)
When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore.
TV: CBS
Series: Oregon leads 2-1.
Spread: Oregon by 21.5.
Total: 54.5
Trendy: Sharps are in the know. Fighting Illini are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
ILLINOIS GAME NOTES: Fighting Illini are 6-1 with three AP Top 25 wins for the third time in program history (1983, 1990, 2024).
Joe says: The Fighting Bret Bielema’s are pretty good on the road, so this game needs closer inspection. Illinois’ defense forced Michigan into three turnovers last week, and looked pretty good doing it in those throwback unis. Meanwhile, Oregon had an easy time with Purdue, shutting out a Boilermakers team that scored 23 points on Illinois in the fourth quarter. Oregon quarterback Dillion Gabriel is a picture of the modern college football player. He started out at UCF, transferred to Oklahoma and now he’s leading the top-ranked team at Oregon. It’s a different world, and Scrooge McDuck has money to burn.
Joe’s pick: Oregon 35, Illinois 21
Pro says: In the last two games, the No.1-ranked Ducks and quarterback Dillon Gabriel have looked like the team they were hyped up to be. On top of the offense, which has scored 31 or more points in six of their seven games, the defense is ranked No.13 in points allowed and their third-down conversion rate allowed is ranked No.25. If that wasn’t enough, the Ducks special teams have returned a punt and kickoff for a touchdown already this season. Illini have to travel cross-country after beating rival Michigan last week. Taking the points is just a tease!
Pro’s pick: Oregon 38, Illinois 10
Hero says: The Fighting Illini come into this game with a lot of confidence following their win over Michigan last week. The problem for Illinois is that Oregon has an effective passing game that will challenge the Illini defense and score points, as evidenced by the Ducks scoring 32 points on a great Ohio State defense. I do think that Illinois is a good enough football team to keep the game closer that the current point spread.
Hero’s pick: Oregon 34, Illinois 17
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia (2) celebrates the team’s 40-35 win over No. 1 Alabama after an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)AP
No.5 Texas (6-1, 2-1 SEC) at No.25 Vanderbilt (5-2, 2-1 SEC)
When: 3:15 p.m., Sat.
Where: Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, Tenn.
TV: SEC Network
Series: Vanderbilt leads 8-3-1.
Spread: Texas by 18.
Total: 53.5
Trendy: Vandy is 5-2 against the spread this season.
VANDERBILT GAME NOTES: The Texas game marks Vandy’s fifth contest this season against a team either ranked or receiving votes. Vanderbilt is 4-1 in those games with the only loss coming in double overtime at No. 7 Missouri.
Joe says: Vandy is legit and Georgia KO’d Texas 30-15 despite three turnovers by UGA quarterback Carson Beck. Hmm…Don’t tempt me, Texas. I really wanted to pick quarterback Diego Pavia and Vandy against Texas in this one, but then Georgia gave Texas an SEC reality check last week. Now the toast of college football, Pavia isn’t sneaking up on the Longhorns like he did Alabama. Texas will keep it close!
Joe’s pick: Vanderbilt 35, Texas 31
Pro says: The Longhorns were dominated at home by Georgia, but the great thing about the new 12-team College Football Playoff is one loss doesn’t eliminate you. The talent is there but I feel that was a nice wake-up call to kick start the rest of the season. Vanderbilt is 4-0 against the spread as an underdog this season, but will face a team hellbent on getting back on top of their game.
Pro’s pick: Texas 45, Vanderbilt 17
Hero says: Texas had their welcome to the SEC moment last week in the home loss to Georgia. Vandy is finally ranked at No.25 and quarterback Diego Pavia thrives as a huge underdog. Unfortunately for Vandy and Diego, the Texas defense is still one of the best in the country and will not allow the Commodores to control the football like they did in the Alabama game. It will keep the Longhorns’ offense off the field. I believe a feisty Vanderbilt team will still keep it relatively close, but the Texas offense led by quarterback Quinn Ewers will outscore Vandy in Nashville.
Hero’s pick: Texas 31, Vanderbilt 17
LSU coach Brian Kelly calls out to his team as they prepare to attempt a two-point conversion against Arkansas during an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, in Fayetteville, Ark. (AP Photo/Michael Woods)AP
No.8 LSU (6-1, 3-0 SEC) at No.14 Texas A&M (6-1, 4-0 SEC)
When: 6:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
TV: ABC
Series: LSU leads 36-23-3.
Spread: Texas A&M by 3.
Total: 53.5
Trendy: Don’t look now but LSU is riding a seven game cover streak in the month of October.
TEXAS A&M GAME NOTES: Aggies sophomore quarterback Conner Weigman returned for Week 6 and led Team Gig ‘Em to a big big victory over Missouri. Weigman was 18-of-22 throwing for 276 yards.
Joe says: This one is a playoff elimination game for Texas A&M, which has turned things around since its early season loss to Notre Dame. Gotta give Aggies coach Mike Elko and LSU coach Brian Kelly credit. They’re atop the SEC amid a wild season. Back a team that stormed its field after taking care of … Ole Miss? Nah. Only one team in the league will be undefeated in conference play after this one. I’m all aboard the Weigman train and Ol’ Rock is the engineer.
Joe’s pick: Texas A&M 33, LSU 28
Pro says: LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier seems to be settling in as the Tigers starting quarterback with 18 touchdowns. It doesn’t hurt that he’s only been sacked two times all season. On the other hand, Aggies’ quarterback Connor Weigman has been up and down in his three starts with only one touchdown pass and four interceptions. Underdogs are 3-0-1 against the spread in this series over the last four games. Don’t buck this strong trend!
Pro’s pick: LSU 28, Texas A&M 24
Hero says: This game has huge conference championship and playoff implications. Both teams lost their opening game but have improved tremendously and remain unbeaten in conference play. The Aggies will have the home-field advantage and are coming off a bye week. The Tigers have a battle-tested road team led by highly effective quarterback Garrett Nussmeier and a rejuvenated defense under first-year defensive coordinator Blake Baker. This game should go down to the last play and LSU has proven twice this year already that they can win these type games.
Hero’s pick: LSU 27, Texas A&M 24
Missouri’s Jordon Harris, left, is hit by Auburn safety Jerrin Thompson, right, before an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, in Columbia, Mo. (AP Photo/L.G. Patterson)AP
Auburn (2-5, 0-4 SEC) at Kentucky (3-4, 1-4 SEC)
When: 6:45 p.m., Sat.
Where: Kroger Field, Lexington, Ky.
TV: SEC Network
Series: Auburn leads 27-6-1.
Spread: Kentucky by 2.5.
Total: 43.5
Trendy: Vegas says that Auburn is 4-0 against the spread in its last four road games against a team with a losing home record. ‘Cats are 2-3 at Kroger after its loss to Vandy.
Joe says: Auburn hasn’t lost in Lexington, Ky., since 1966, but Hugh Freeze’s 2024 Tigers are historically bad. They’ve lost seven games in a row against Power 4 teams and that streak doesn’t even include the drubbing last season against quarterback Diego Pavia and New Mexico State. Kentucky’s only victories this season are against Southern Miss and Ohio University, and still the Wildcats are favored. It’s hard to back quarterback Payton Thorne against a defense that held Georgia to 13 points.
Joe’s pick: Kentucky 25, Auburn 18
Pro says: If you’re not an alumni of either school or know someone playing in this game, then it’s going to be a tough watch. Against Power 4 conference opponents this season, Auburn has scored only 14, 14, 21, 13 and 17 points. Seems like this wasn’t what Tiger fans expected when they hired Hugh Freeze as their head coach. Kentucky in their last two games after upsetting Ole Miss has lost by a combined 35 points. I’ll flip a coin and take the home team by a whisker.
Pro’s pick: Kentucky 20, Auburn 16
Hero says: Both teams desperately need a win to turn around disappointing seasons. The Wildcats’ defense is still highly rated but they gave up several long passing plays in the loss to Florida last Saturday. Auburn has been very competitive in conference games, but keeps finding ways to lose close games. The Tigers’ defense should be able to limit the Kentucky offense and if the Tigers’ offense does not give the game away with turnovers, we could see Auburn win their first conference game of the year.
Hero’s pick: Auburn 20, Kentucky 17
Alabama running back Justice Haynes (22) crosses the goal line for a touchdown in front of Tennessee defensive back Andre Turrentine (2) during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, in Knoxville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)AP
No.21 Missouri (6-1, 2-1 SEC) at No.15 Alabama (5-2, 2-2 SEC)
When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala.
TV: ABC
Series: Alabama leads 5-2.
Spread: Alabama by 14.
Total: 53.5
Trendy: Trust the wise guys? The boys want you to know that Alabama is 7-0 against the spread in its last seven games directly after scoring less than 20 points in a game.
ALABAMA GAME NOTES: Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer is 13-3 against ranked opponents and 5-1 against teams ranked in the No.10. (Tennessee was ranked No.11 last week.)
Joe says: Jalen Milroe has committed six turnovers over his past three games, including five interceptions. He’s got a bad case of the yips and especially when games are on the line or the ball is near the goal line. Turnovers have always been Milroe’s red flag for NFL scouts. Maybe a home game will cure what ails him. Missouri’s defense isn’t on par with Tennessee’s, but the Tigers can still give quarterbacks trouble. Can play the blowout with what we’ve seen.
Joe’s pick: Alabama 24, Missouri 21
Pro says: Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe has struggled the last two games throwing four interceptions. Tigers quarterback Brady Cook missed half of the last game and his status this week is still up in the air. Alabama might have the better running game, but Missouri has not one weapon at receiver but two in Luther Burden and Theo Wease. They have combined to catch 72 passes for 910 yards and 5 touchdowns. I also believe the Tigers might have the overall better defense. Cook’s availability to start and finish the game keeps me from going all in.
Pro’s pick: Alabama 27, Missouri 20
Hero says: The Tide’s offensive performance has declined in the last two games against two top-rated defenses in Tennessee and South Carolina. Missouri also brings in a top-rated defense, but they have not fared as well in conference games especially against the run. To win, the Bama offense must commit to the rushing game to generate time-consuming drives and avoid costly interceptions in the red zone. The Tide defense will need to keep pressure on experienced Tigers’ quarterback Brady Cook, who has shown the ability to pick apart a defensive secondary if he has time in the pocket. I expect this game to be close for four quarters, but the Tide should have a slight edge on homecoming weekend.
Hero’s pick: Alabama 27, Missouri 24
