EL PASO, Texas (Border Report) — Election Day is less than two weeks away and a handful of border contests could determine who gains control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Eleven congressional districts make up the U.S.-Mexico border from Brownsville, Texas, to San Diego. And while some of those districts appear to be a lock for incumbents — Democrats and Republicans — others have been described as toss-ups.
On this week’s episode of “Border Report Live,” host Chip Brewster and Border Report correspondents Julian Resendiz, Salvador Rivera and Sandra Sanchez discuss key House races and the issues driving voters to the polls.
Texas’ 34th Congressional District
Republican Mayra Flores represented Texas’ 34th Congressional District for about six months before losing to Democrat U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in the 2022 midterms. Flores had won a special election to replace Democrat Filemon Vela, who retired in early 2022. Gonzalez and Flores face off again to represent a district that includes Cameron County on the Gulf of Mexico and parts of Hidalgo County.
Texas’ 15th Congressional District
Before running in District 34, Gonzalez represented the neighboring District 15. When the Texas Legislature redrew the districts, his home ended up in District 34, where he ran and won in 2022. That left District 15, a sliver of Texas that stretches from the border city of McAllen to the outskirts of San Antonio, up for grabs.
Republican Monica De La Cruz, who lost to Gonzalez in 2020, flipped the South Texas seat red in 2022 for the first time in history, and she wants to hang on to it again.
The congresswoman from McAllen faces a repeat challenge from Democratic entrepreneur Michelle Vallejo. De La Cruz performed well in the red ranchlands to the north, but areas closer to the border, like Hidalgo County, favored Vallejo.
Texas’ 28th Congressional District
In Texas’ 28th Congressional District, Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar hopes to secure an 11th term in Congress.
The district stretches from Laredo to San Antonio and down to more rural parts of South Texas.
Cuellar, who has been in office since 2005, was indicted on charges of bribery and money laundering earlier this year. He’ll face Republican Jay Furman, a Navy Veteran, on Nov. 5. According to 270ToWin, Cuellar is “likely” to hold on to his seat.
Texas’s 23rd Congressional District
Texas’s 23rd Congressional District has the longest international boundary with Mexico and is home to the Texas border cities of Del Rio and Eagle Pass. Redistricting added Fort Bliss and more parts of East El Paso County ahead of the 2022 midterms.
District 23 has flipped between Republicans and Democrats since it was created. However, Republicans have held on to the seat since 2015. The incumbent, Republican Tony Gonzales, replaced three-term Congressman Will Hurd, who retired in 2021. Gonzales, however, was forced into a primary runoff by 2nd Amendment advocate and YouTube personality Brandon “The AK Guy” Herrera. Gonzales now faces Democrat Santos Limon.
The 23rd District is massive in size, extending along the border from El Paso to Eagle Pass to San Antonio. Several poll analysts say Gonzales is safe in District 23.
Texas’ 16th Congressional District
Round 3: Republican Irene Armendariz is challenging Democratic Congresswoman Veronica Escobar in Texas’ 16th Congressional District for a third time. The majority of the district includes the city of El Paso.
Like Gonzales, Escobar is expected to win re-election, according to fivethirtyeight.com.
New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District
New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District, on the other hand, is one of two that the Cook Political Report says are toss-ups. It includes New Mexico’s entire border with Mexico, and it flipped three times in the past six years.
U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez is in a rematch with former Republican Congresswoman Yvette Herrell.
A win for the Republicans could give them an edge in the House.
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District
The other toss-up is the race for Arizona’s rural 6th Congressional District, which starts at the New Mexico state line. Though it has a relatively short border with Mexico, this district has at times been the epicenter for illegal immigration into the U.S.
Incumbent Republican Juan Ciscomani faces Democrat Kirsten Engel, Green Party candidate Athena Eastwood and independent write-in candidate Luis Pozzolo, who ran for Congress in the neighboring 7th District in 2022.
Arizona’s 7th Congressional District
Pozzolo had run as a Republican in Arizona’s 7th Congressional in 2022, losing to Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who served as a congressman from 2003-2013.
Grijalva will face Republican Daniel Butierrez.
California’s 25th Congressional District
Democratic incumbent Raul Ruiz will face Republican Ian Weeks in the race for California’s 25th Congressional District. Ruiz has been in Congress since 2013 and was redistricted from District 36 to District 25 in 2023. The district includes all of Imperial County on the border and parts of Riverside County and San Bernardino County on the outskirts of Los Angeles.
California’s 48th Congressional District
Longtime Republican Congressman Darrell Issa will take on Democrat Stephen Houlahan, a nurse and political newcomer.
The district goes from the border areas north of San Diego and is sandwiched between two blue districts: Ruiz’s 25th and Juan Vargas’ 52nd.
California’s 52nd Congressional District
U.S. Rep. Juan Vargas, D-California, will face Republican Justin Lee in the race for California’s 52nd Congressional District.
