The polls do not end up giving a clear favorite in the US presidential elections on November 5. The latest published polls show that the elections are even in the popular vote. That is a scenario that, in principle – although not necessarily – favors Donald Trump. In 2016, the Republican was elected president despite the fact that Hillary Clinton obtained almost three million more votes (48.0% compared to 45.9%). In 2020, Joe Biden won by seven million votes, but It would have been enough for just 22,000 people distributed in three states (Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin) They would have voted for Trump instead of Biden so that the Republican would have remained in the White House.
The latest survey was published by the CNN news channel this Friday. It gives each of the two candidates 47% in the popular vote. And it also shows that the fight remains very close in the decisive States, with margins of one to three points. Trump would lead in Arizona (50%-47%), Georgia (50%-48%) and North Carolina (49%-48%). For her part, Harris would be ahead in Wisconsin (49%-46%), Michigan (49%-46%) and would also have a minimal advantage in the most important of the key states, Pennsylvania (48%-47%).
Also this Friday it was published the survey of The New York Times and Siena College, which gives both a tie with 48% of the votes. This equality represents a clear setback for the Democrat since the previous installment of the New York newspaper, at the beginning of the month, which gave her a three-point advantage (49%-46%). The data published this Friday do not break down voting intentions in the seven decisive states that will tip the balance when the truth comes. They do show the enormous gender gap among voters. While Harris leads Trump 54%-42% among women, the Republican leads the Democrat 55%-41% among men.
The survey follows another published Thursday by The Wall Street Journal, which gave Trump a three-point advantage in the popular vote (49%-46%), reversing the previous poll by the same medium, in which Harris was two points ahead. Another from CNBC gave Trump a difference of two points (48%-46%). In contrast, a poll published a few days earlier by Reuters/Ipsos gave Harris a three-point lead (48%-45%). The FiveThirtyEight Aggregator still places Harris in the lead, one point away from Trump.
The election of the president does not depend on victory in the popular vote, but on the CElectoral College, composed of 538 voters, delegates or delegates representing the States. Each one has the equivalent of its number of congressmen (counting senators, always two per State; and representatives, from 1 to 52, depending on the population). Added to that are three votes for the capital, the District of Columbia (DC). With minimal exceptions, the candidate who wins in a State takes all of its electoral votes, regardless of the difference.
The decisive states
In many States there is hardly any doubt who is going to win. Harris practically has 226 Electoral College votes in her pocket, while Trump can count on 219. 270 are needed to win. The battle is in the other 93, spread across seven states where approximately 15% of a population of 335 million people live: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Democrats often win by a very large majority in California, the most populous state, and New York, the fourth most populous state. Although in practice it does not matter whether you win in those States by one vote or by millions, it is the advantage in those territories, mainly, that has allowed the Democratic candidate to win in seven of the last eight elections in the popular vote. In two of them (George W. Bush against Al Gore and Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton), the Electoral College reversed the preference of the majority of Americans.
Things, however, are changing. Polls – and the results of the 2022 legislative elections – suggest that the Democrats’ advantage has been reduced in the State of New York, while that of the Republicans has expanded in Florida. They are States considered non-competitive in the presidential election, in which the narrowing or widening of the differences has no impact on the Electoral College, since a change of sign is not expected. Under these conditions, as the analyst of the New York Times Nate Cohn, a scenario in which Trump wins the popular vote, but Harris achieves a majority in the Electoral College, is no longer inconceivable.
Both candidates They battle in the seven decisive states. Trump seems to have some advantage in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona, but the great hope of the Democrats is above all in what they have baptized as the Blue Wall, the three decisive states of the rust belt (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin). There are three States that Obama won in 2008 and 2012; Trump, in 2016, and Biden, in 2020, the only ones to chain four elections in which whoever wins there ends up in the White House. The one with the most weight of these three states (and of the seven decisive ones) is Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral voteswhere CNN gives Harris a one-point lead (48%-47%). For this reason, the candidates are spending a large part of the campaign there. Harris holds a rally in Philadelphia this Sunday, while Trump plans another in Allentown on Tuesday, but they will surely not be his last stops in Pennsylvania before November 5.
