The European Union is preparing for what would be its worst economic and geopolitical scenario in the United States: the return to the White House of Donald Trump. The victory of the Republican magnate in the presidential elections of next November 5 It could be a blow to the community club’s commercial and security policy; also for support for Ukraine against the invading Russia. Brussels has been developing contingency plans for weeks to prevent actions that negatively affect the Union and to act in the event, for example, that the new Administration dramatically increases tariffs on imports of European products and respond accordingly.
A high-level team from the European Commission and the European Foreign Service, with occasional participation from capitals, is studying possible scenarios to be able to avoid the blow or react so that it is not so strong. In addition, several member states are also working on their own plans, diplomatic sources acknowledge. “The only certainty is total uncertainty,” says a European official who participates in the conversations, carried out in secrecy. The community team was created over the summer, but meetings have intensified in recent weeks, according to multiple sources. The most recent polls suggest that Trump and the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, are tied in the electoral race.
Everything indicates that Trump will continue to be “unpredictable,” says a diplomatic source. Various scenarios are handled: from a catastrophic perspective to anticipating a moderate blow, he adds. High-level EU officials have already approached people on the Republican’s team and those who are talking about a hypothetical Trump 2.0 Administration to prevent possible trade wars and geopolitical turbulence. But the ability to influence when everything is still so nebulous is limited. It is not guaranteed afterwards either.
Brussels is clear that the Republican magnate will continue to be enormously protectionist and has already promised an increase in import tariffs; something he did in his first mandate and to which Brussels responded. But Democrat Joe Biden has also been one, a lot, and Harris will not stray from the path.
The uncertainty is how much Trump would raise those tariffs and on what products. He has already hinted that he will increase them by 10% on all imports, which could cost the community bloc some 180 billion euros, according to the estimate of the Institute of German Economics. The idea is to prevent the coup with some kind of quick agreement and a diplomatic offensive of seduction – the favorite option – or, if that does not work, to stand up and act in a “proportionate” way against a series of American products that community experts already they analyze.
Furthermore, several European sources, increasingly concerned as election Tuesday approaches, point out that it is necessary to measure how the increase in these entry fees for European products affects the EU, but also what impact an escalation in the trade war between Washington and Beijing in which China could divert more products to the Union.
Within this economic and commercial section, the EU has also intensified its contacts with other allies, to try to close pending trade agreements, such as that of Australia or Mercosur – with Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay -, which seemed dead. and in which talks have been revived in recent months pending overcoming France’s eternal resistance.
Pivot to the Indo-Pacific
In the geopolitical field, the most plausible scenario is that the Republicans turn their focus towards the Indo-Pacific. Also that the dispute with Iran intensifies. But the most delicate and unpredictable element is undoubtedly the support for Ukraine from the Republican magnate, much closer to the Russian Vladimir Putin and who has already said that after winning he would put a plan on the table to end the war. The catastrophic scenario would be for Washington to withdraw all support for kyiv and begin to lift sanctions on the Kremlin and the orbit of the Russian leader. The EU would be left alone to support the invaded country, something that would soon become unaffordable.
Another scenario is that it undertakes an escalation-to-de-escalation plan—allowing, for example, bombings on Russian territory with American material and even assistance for the shooting—and thus bring the Kremlin to a negotiating table. The return to diplomatic channels will eventually come, but the question is when and with how many concessions from Ukraine it will be settled, says a high-ranking community source.
Brussels has already acted on these possible scenarios. In recent weeks, it has managed to unlock a loan of $50 billion to Ukraine from the G-7 allies, to be paid with the returns being generated by Russian state assets immobilized in the EU due to the sanctions imposed by the war in Ukraine. . And it has managed to get the United States to contribute 20 billion to the package, the same amount as Brussels. There has been great pressure for the agreement to be reached before the elections.
Mobilizing more funds if the American ally drops out of the team will be difficult, European sources say. And there is the element of security for the Union and for European NATO allies. The United States is the main ally of the military organization and that is why it is not preparing with contingency plans, like the EU, although they have tried to shield support for Ukraine. Trump has already threatened to “disengage” from the Alliance and withdraw troops from European territory, but he is bound by agreements and pacts. It’s not that simple. But the statements in which he suggested that I would stop defending to allies that do not spend 2% of their GDP on defense (including Spain), as marked by NATO’s key commitment, can be enormously “destabilizing,” says a veteran diplomat.
The response to this “disengagement” scenario is to create a structure of “incentives”, reach a commitment to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine by the EU, finance programs or even put on the table defense renewal contracts that can be attractive to the new Administration.
All this also comes at a key moment in which the EU is debating what defense model and security wants and needs and how to mobilize tens of millions of euros to pay for it. The European Commission is already working on a proposal for the Member States that it will present in its first 100 days in office.
Trump’s victory would be bad news for the new European Commission and for the president, Ursula von der Leyen, who has a very Atlanticist stance and who has forged very good relations with the Biden Administration, says a European source. Also for Europe, which is weak, with Germany and France faltering, he adds.
