The worst fall of the coalition | Spain

The weeks of the coalition government are becoming longer and longer in a disastrous political autumn. Almost since returning from vacation, the Executive has gone from crisis to crisis with issues about which it cannot do much, such as Ábalos case corruption scandal or the dimitation of Íñigo Errejón for allegations of sexual assault. “Now we miss the battle with the amnesty, which was very hard, but there we had discourse, we could go on the offensive and claim what we were doing, trusting that our people would understand it. With this it is impossible. We can only explain that we are doing everything to prevent it from happening again, to assume responsibilities and cut off heads, but it is not enough,” summarizes a minister.

In La Moncloa they are accustomed to tough political battles, such as the amnesty, to negotiations on the brink of the abyss, such as that of regional financing for Salvador Illa to be president, to elections to the limit, such as those of July 2023, but no one seems to have an effective formula to confront the reputational crisis that the Ábalos and Errejón scandals have entailed, in its different aspects.

The Government claims that they have done everything they could, with an attitude in both matters very different from that of the opposition of the PP and Vox when it has encountered similar issues: nipping it in the bud, firing Ábalos when there was still no evidence against him or to Errejón before there were complaints to the police. But all the ministers and leaders consulted are aware that it is not enough, that the wave of wear and tear that these scandals bring is strong, although they trust that over time citizens, especially progressives, will be able to see that the important thing is not that there is corruption or abuse, which is something that, they explain, can happen in any party, but the forceful way of acting in the face of scandals.

The feeling that is perceived in the Government is one of absolute indignation with those responsible for these scandals, and of great concern about the discouragement they are causing in the progressive world. The Executive assumes that this Errejón matter will last a long time. Because it is very serious, because it has many derivatives and above all because it opens a great internal discussion in Sumar about who takes responsibility for not stopping it sooner. And that’s why it’s going to cover everything. “In the coming weeks it will be very difficult to put any other topics on the agenda. Talking about the good economic data we have is impossible. For governments in general it is not easy to control the agenda, for us in these weeks it is being impossible,” admits a member of the Executive. “We are making it very easy for the opposition. It’s a shot in the foot. Our only great advantage is precisely that the PP does not know how to take advantage of the gifts that the fires give it in the progressive majority,” summarizes another.

The great concern that is felt among the ministers consulted is the internal war within the political space to the left of the PSOE, which this case is deepening. Pedro Sánchez and Yolanda Díaz have been in communication about this crisis, and so have their teams. Messages have been coordinated and the president has given a very clear political instruction to the socialist sector of the Government, which was already seen in his message in X on Thursday: we must support Sumar and Díaz to the maximum. Since the space entered into crisis due to the rupture between Sumar and Podemos, which was left out of the Government, in the PSOE there is great concern for the future of this group that is essential for the coalition to resist and that has an obvious impact on the image and political strength of the Executive.

“No one knows how the war between Sumar and Podemos can end, and within Sumar’s own space there is a clear recomposition after the poor result in the European elections. We do not believe that Podemos will be able to overthrow the Budgets, but they are threatening to do so and they are going very hard in the initial conversations. With that open space in the canal, now much more so with the Errejón case, it is very difficult to have peace of mind and talk about our management issues,” summarizes another member of the Government.

The socialist ministers insist that the PSOE is strong, that all polls place it consolidated above 30%, and that this will be seen in the Congress they will have at the end of November. But it’s not enough. A possible implosion of Sumar, with some sectors like IU trying to regain weight, it would be a very serious problem for the Government. The socialists know that this could even lead to some benefit for them, because they could accumulate a part of the vote of the left in the PSOE and improve their situation somewhat. But it’s of no use to them. With a weak left, the PSOE can even improve in seats, but it would not be able to govern, because the PP and Vox, which were four seats away from the absolute majority, would achieve it with certainty.

These are electoral calculations, but in La Moncloa they are not involved in that because they absolutely assume that there is a lot left for the elections, because Sánchez is not going to bring them forward and no one has the political capacity to force them. In fact, the most surprising thing, from a political point of view, is that this Errejón crisis has erupted only two days after an agreement was announced that went in the opposite direction, that of recomposing the majority for a long term: the pact to renew RTVE, which implies that for the first time parties like Junts or ERC will have councilors, and, therefore, it will be governed with the majority of Sánchez’s investiture, while the PP will be left aside with four of the 15 councilors. The Government does not stop moving, and seeking agreements like this one, woven by Óscar López and Félix Bolaños, to consolidate the legislature.

In fact, Bolaños was in Barcelona this weekend as always with discreet meetings with an eye on the Budgets, the great lifeline of the legislature. But nothing will be immediate. There are weeks left until serious negotiations can be made, when not only the Junts congress this weekend is over, but also the ERC congress at the end of November. At the earliest and if everything goes well, there will be Accounts in February or March. There are difficult weeks ahead. And another possible emotional blow on the immediate horizon: a victory for Donald Trump would consolidate the global turn to the right and leave the progressive Spanish government even more alone. And a victory for Kamala Harris would be a morale boost.