The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan would win, but suffering a considerable setback, this Sunday’s elections, according to exit polls published by the main local media. The conservative formation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, 67, would not reach the absolute majority it enjoyed on its own. And it would be difficult to even reach with its traditional coalition partner Komeito the 233 seats with which control of the 465-seat lower house is achieved, according to the poll by the public broadcaster NHK.
The result, if confirmed, would be a blow for the formation that has ruled Japan without interruptions since its founding in 1955, and would be forced to look for new partners to remain at the head of the Executive. Before the election, the LDP alone had 256 seats, giving it control of the most powerful House of the Diet (the Japanese Parliament).
The opposition of the center-left Democratic Constitutional Party (PCD) would significantly strengthen its presence in the House of Representatives. The party led by Yoshihiko Noda, another veteran of Japanese politics who served as prime minister between 2011 and 2012, would achieve strong momentum with dozens of more seats than in the 2021 elections, according to NHK. Although it is unlikely that he will have the capacity to articulate a government option, the result would balance the strength of the opposition against a PLD that has exercised almost incontestable power since 2012. For the first time, since then, it could break the psychological barrier of the three digits in the number of deputies.
While the official count is still underway – the final result is not expected until early Monday – the PLD has already shown signs of concern. “We have been judged severely,” Ishiba assured in statements to the local media, after the polls closed.
The range of the polls is, in any case, very wide. The one published by the national network NHK gives the LDP and Komeito coalition between 174 and 254 of the 465 seats; meanwhile, the main opposition party, the PCD, would obtain between 128 and 191 seats.
“The situation is very complicated and it is my responsibility,” Shinjiro Koizumi, secretary of the ruling party’s electoral committee, also acknowledged in an appearance after the polls closed. In this unpredictable scenario, the coalition would have to add a new partner to govern. Analysts are already pointing towards other formations, such as the Democratic Party for the People, given their affinity on issues such as defense, which could lead to a review of Japan’s constitutional pacifism.
Ishiba arrived this Sunday with the polls in free fall, marked by the long shadow of the illegal financing scandal that has shaken his party. The poor result, some analysts predicted, could even force the LDP to look for an alternative face to lead the Government, which would make Ishiba the prime minister with the shortest mandate in post-war Japanese history. The decision remains up in the air, but it could happen: the PLD is a political force composed of dissimilar factions in constant struggle, and is accustomed to elections in the midst of scandals in which it appeals to the loyalty of voters won, often, with measures concrete measures to support regions, sectors or groups.
His breadbasket of voters is traditionally faithful. Whether in the countryside or in the city. Izamu Kambe, 68, a retired factory worker, commented last Thursday, after voting early in the rural town of Nanmoku, that he had once again chosen the usual ticket: the LDP. “The opposition gives a feeling of weakness,” he said.
While holding his bicycle, Shimbo, a 21-year-old Chemistry university student who still lives with his parents, acknowledges this Sunday that he has also voted for the PLD “for stability.” He has just cast his ballot at a polling station in Hachioji, on the outskirts of Tokyo. Corruption, in his opinion, has not been a sufficient argument to change parties.
“They are garbage and we have to clean them up!” exclaims Emiko Ogahara not far from there, with microphone in hand, at the exit of Hachioji station. He does not demand the vote for anyone, so as not to contravene the rules on election day, but he does remind passersby to exercise their right and that in no case do they do so for the PLD – the “garbage” – or its related independent candidates, splashed for the irregular financing scheme that broke out last year, forced the resignation of several ministersand the popularity of the then Chief Executive, Fumio Kishida, hit so hard that he finally decided to leave office in the summer. After his departure, Ishiba took the reins of the Liberal Democrats at the end of September, was inaugurated prime minister on October 1, formed a government and immediately called early elections, to take advantage of the surge in popularity.
Voting day has passed with hardly any surprises in the orderly archipelago, although it has generated controversy that 40% of the country’s polling stations have decided to advance the closing time of the polls, something that is possible, but that the opposition has seen as an attempt to reduce the participation that, in theory, benefits it. The final turnout has not yet been published, but almost 21 million people have voted in advance in recent days, the second highest number in history.
Many voters already anticipated a decline. “We are going to lose seats because of the money issue,” acknowledged a voter from the Government party who had attended one of Ishiba’s closing speeches on Saturday afternoon in the popular Ebisu area, in the center of Tokyo. Under a heavy police deployment, and surrounded by modern buildings and bright lights, the prime minister implored the vote for the candidate of that electoral district, and even asked for further involvement: “Just make a call to a friend,” he claimed. to the public.
