Hurricane Helene strengthened on Thursday as it continued on a track that will take it to Florida’s Gulf Coast later tonight.
The National Hurricane Center thinks Helene will make landfall as a major hurricane late tonight or early Friday somewhere in Florida’s Big Bend region.
But there is a glimmer of good news: The hurricane center’s latest intensity forecast has been dialed back overnight, and now Helene is not expected to be a Category 4 storm at landfall.
But it won’t be a weak storm by any means. Forecasters are thinking Helene will be a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds by the time it reaches the Gulf Coast.
It will also be a very large storm and will spread its bad weather across a wide region.
Forecasters still think Helene will be moving very fast at the time of landfall, which means that hurricane-force winds will be possible well inland. In fact, the hurricane center’s official forecast track shows Helene still at hurricane strength over central Georgia on Friday.
Alabama’s coastal areas are still expected to escape the worst of Helene, but the storm could spread heavy rain and high winds well inland. Several inland southeast Alabama counties remain under a hurricane warning, and tropical storm warnings stretched the length of the state’s eastern border on Thursday.
As of 4 a.m. CDT Thursday, Hurricane Helene was located about 350 miles southwest of Tampa, or 385 miles south of Apalachicola, and was tracking to the north-northeast at 12 mph.
Helene had winds of 90 mph, the hurricane center said. Category 2 winds begin at 96 mph, and Category 3 winds at 111 mph.
The hurricane center said Helene is expected to pick up speed in the next 24 hours and race toward the coast. On the official forecast track, Helene is expected to move across the eastern Gulf today and make landfall this evening or early Friday morning. Then Helene could turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
One thing of note: Helene’s track once inland has shifted a little bit to the east, which could keep some of the stronger winds and higher rain totals in Georgia.
One thing that has not changed overnight is the forecast for potential storm surge along Florida’s Big Bend region, where a potentially catastrophic 15 to 20 feet of surge will be possible:
Parts of the Big Bend are still facing the possibility of 15 to 20 feet of storm surge.NHC
The hurricane center said Helene could also dump 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 18 inches across parts of the Southeast U.S., which is raising serious concerns about inland flash flooding:
Here’s where the most rain could fall from Helene.NHC
Here are the watches and warnings in effect:
* A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo, Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
* A Hurricane Warning is in effect from the Anclote River to Mexico Beach.
* A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.
* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas; Flamingo to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay; from west of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line; Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet; Lake Okeechobee and the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.
Inland hurricane warnings stretched into parts of south and central Georgia on Thursday, and tropical storm warnings covered the rest of Georgia, all of South Carolina and parts of Alabama, Tennessee and western North Carolina.