Sports Mole previews Monday’s Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Libya and Benin, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Libya host Benin at 11 June Stadium on Monday in their final Africa Cup of Nation qualifying match in Group D, desperate for maximum points to boost hopes of participation at next year’s finals.
Although they rank bottom in that section, a healthy victory over Gernot Rohr‘s men and Nigeria avoiding defeat on home soil to Rwanda could suffice for the North African nation.
Match preview
After a topsy-turvy run in AFCON qualifying, the Mediterranean Knights got a reprieve with a slender 1-0 victory over Rwanda in match five.
Fahad Al Mesmari‘s 84th-minute strike not only secured the North African nation her first win in Group D but also kept alive their slim chances of making it to Morocco next year.
Despite entering the final round of games with four points from five (Nigeria were awarded a 3-0 win after last month’s incident in which the Super Eagles were stranded in Benghazi), Libya are only one point behind third-placed Rwanda and three behind their second-placed visitors.
Even though Nasser Al-Hadhiri‘s men have a significantly inferior goal difference, a comfortable victory for the home side will see them finish above Benin due to the competition’s priority tiebreakers — points in head-to-head matches among tied teams, goal difference in head-to-head matches and goals scored in head-to-head matches.
Libya were beaten 2-1 in the reverse fixture, and they will back themselves to notch a healthier advantage at Benin’s expense.
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Monday’s match could have been nothing but a formality had Rohr’s team seen off the Super Eagles’ challenge on Thursday.
The Cheetahs looked more coherent than the three-time African champions in inclement conditions, posing problems from open play and especially from set-pieces.
They went 1-0 up in minute 16 through Mohamed Tijani and were nine minutes from sealing a fifth appearance at the finals, only for Victor Osimhen to score with nine minutes of the 90 to play.
The upshot of that tie for Rohr’s men is that they need to avoid a loss in Libya to guarantee qualification regardless of the outcome of Rwanda’s visit to Nigeria.
Although Benin lead the Rwandans by two points, they have a superior goal difference in their head-to-head with the Wasps — winning the home leg 3-0 and losing 2-1 in the reverse fixture.
While they could still advance if they lose in Tripoli, Rohr will require help from old friends in West Africa — Nigeria avoiding a loss to Rwanda — to secure the Cheetahs their spot at the continental showpiece.
Libya form (all competitions):
Benin Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying form:
Benin form (all competitions):
Team News
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Noureddine Al Gleib has set up two of Libya’s three goals in qualifying, and the 23-year-old aims to be pivotal in the Mediterranean Knights’ make-or-break qualifier.
Mourad Al Wuhayshi was busy in the North African nation’s win over Rwanda, making six saves in the 1-0 success, and the goalkeeper hopes to come up trumps when called upon on Monday.
Junior Olaitan was Benin’s leading threat against Nigeria, creating three chances and setting up the Cheetahs’ goal, and the wide attacker aims to produce another strong showing.
Despite the winger’s threat, Rohr’s leading goalscorers in AFCON qualifying are Steve Mounie and Andreas Hountondji (two each) and the pair hope to add to their tallies against Libya.
Libya possible starting lineup:
Al Wuhayshi; Saleh, Yusuf, Abusahmin; Salama, Al Shreimy, Hasan, Al Mabrouk; Al Gleib, Al Mariami, Almeehoub
Benin possible starting lineup:
Dandjinou; Moumini, Roche, Tijani, Ouorou; D’Almeida, Imourane; Tosin, Dodo, Olaitan; Mounie
We say: Libya 2-0 Benin
Benin have lost nine of their previous 12 road games in AFCON qualifying, and another defeat could be in the offing in Libya.
A victory by two goals then puts the North African side above Rohr’s men due to the second tiebreaker — goal difference in head-to-head matches among tied teams — leaving the second qualifying spot to the result of Nigeria’s match with Rwanda.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
