Watching the presidential debate with friends and neighbors in her San Jose living room, Cayce Hill was confident that Kamala Harris had triumphed. The vice president came across to her as commanding and compassionate and so unnerved Donald Trump that his false diatribe involving immigrants in Ohio dining on cats and dogs became the highlight reel for much of America.
But when it was over and the pizza boxes were still on the kitchen counter, Hill — a die-hard Democrat with a Harris campaign sign in her front yard — curled up on her sectional and grimaced.
“It makes me really nervous thinking that we shouldn’t be overconfident,” said Hill, 49, who was “flashing back to 2016” when Hillary Clinton trounced Trump in that presidential debate and still lost the election. “I’m really worried.”
Instant viewer polls showed Harris, a former California Attorney General and U.S. Senator who grew up in Berkeley, was the clear debate winner. A dozen hands in Hill’s living room shot up when asked if they thought Harris won and, in a long-awaited boom for the Harris campaign, megastar Taylor Swift sent a tweet endorsing Harris 27 minutes after the debate ended. That reaction was a mirror opposite of the Trump v. Biden debate in June that was so disastrous for President Joe Biden, Democratic leaders forced him to end his reelection campaign and backed his vice president instead.
“The Biden debate was consequential, but that was because Biden was bad, not because Trump was good,” said Jack Pitney, political science professor at Claremont McKenna College. In Tuesday’s debate with Harris, “if this was a prizefight, they would have stopped it halfway in.”
Nonetheless, analysts say the race will likely be tight until the end.
Sonoma State Political Science Professor David McCuan puts it this way: Harris will likely enjoy a temporary bump in the polls of 1 to 2 percentage points by Thursday, then the Swift endorsement will continue the “sugar high” until she’s up 3 to 5 points. That’s a substantial margin given the closeness of the race, he said, but Harris needs more support in swing states.
“If he had won the debate, it would be a dog fight to the end,” McCuan said. “Now it’s a dog and cat fight that Kamala Harris is driving.”
No matter the often dour optics for Trump on the split screen, his hardcore supporters believe he came across as strong and convincing. And that’s despite what they consider unfair treatment from moderators fact-checking him along the way — including ABC’s David Muir, who said there’s no evidence that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are stealing and eating family pets.
“It feels like three against one,” said Genevieve Perez, a retiree in Millbrae who joined fellow Republicans at a watch party in Pacifica Tuesday night. Richard Middleton, a 62-year-old retired veteran living in Pacifica, had one of the loudest laughs at the GOP watch party, held at the clubhouse bar at Pacifica’s Sharp Park Golf Course. As Trump taunted Harris throughout the night, he laughed along, clapping when Trump claimed that Biden “hates” Harris.
“He’s the stronger leader out of this,” Middleton said.
Still, some Republicans expressed a creeping concern that his inability to broaden his support behind his loyal base could hurt his chances on Nov. 5. A 71-year-old landlord from San Francisco worried Trump came across as too aggressive.
“I’m not sure this debate will really sway someone who’s a moderate voter,” one Republican debate watcher remarked.
If one of Harris’s chief debate goals was to belittle Trump, it seemed to be working at a watch party at San Jose State University, where 30 students crammed in a basement meeting room under the Martin Luther King, Jr., library. Most of them seemed as amused and baffled as Harris when Trump made a bold claim about pet-eating immigrants in Ohio. At the same time, however, they gave Trump credit for quieting Harris, using her own line against her — “I’m talking now” — and for offering her a MAGA hat when he suggested she had “adopted” some of his own campaign ideas.
Republican student Jordan Robinson, a 20-year old junior at San Jose State University, said he was disappointed with Trump’s performance, which he said was “all over the place.”
“By over-talking and trying to convey points that weren’t asked, he doesn’t come across as well,” Robinson said. “Even though I don’t fully agree with Kamala, she’s been staying a little bit more on track and with knowing when to speak, which makes her seem better tonight.”
Students seemed largely impressed by Harris. They posted fire emojis on their phones and quipping that she “ate” — Gen-Z slang for “killing it.”
