The popular storyline about the 49ers heading into this season is that it’s “now or never” for this group to finally land the franchise’s sixth Lombardi Trophy.
The story goes that if the 49ers don’t end their 30-year Super Bowl drought in February in New Orleans, the big bad salary cap and the weight of quarterback Brock Purdy’s impending new contract will conspire to slam a window shut on the best-laid plans of coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch.
You’ll hear it all season, both on game day, with the solemn proclamations of on-air talent, and during the week from almost every analyst, blogger, and print reporter.
It’s not true.
It’s incumbent on the 49ers to do what they can to win a championship, not just this season, but every season, because that’s how the league works. At the same time, falling short doesn’t mean the season was a failure.
Should the 49ers win more than they lose, fill the seats at Levi’s Stadium, entertain their fans, maintain their national profile and make a lot of money, it’s a successful season, no matter what anyone else thinks.
As much as fans and media fixate on “legacies,” in truth, a legacy is in the eye of the beholder. Aside from the Hall of Fame, there are no legacy plaques as much as a constant stream of meaningless debate as to what does and doesn’t constitute a winner.
Even owner Jed York, who once talked about the 49ers raising only championship banners, has come to have a more reasoned perspective on the NFL.
“I just think you can’t be ashamed of a successful season,” York told reporters at the NFL owner’s meetings last March.
I said it after the 49ers lost 25-22 in overtime to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII last February and will reiterate here – the “winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing” mentality is a myth. It sounds good, but even the players who went through the pain of defeat will concede that all the work that went toward attempting to achieve a collective goal is rewarding and important.
The 49ers have done a lot of things right, and there’s reason to believe it can be sustained, even after Purdy goes from being paid less than $1 million to $50 million-plus per season and the jigsaw puzzle that is the NFL salary cap is rearranged.
Given that they’ve been to the NFC championship game four of the last five years and to the Super Bowl twice, there’s good reason to think something similar is in the offing for 2024.
You don’t get much closer to a championship than defending a fourth-and-1 in sudden-death overtime at the opponent’s 34-yard line with the Lombardi Trophy on the line. Make a play, win a ring. Patrick Mahomes, the two-time league MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP, kept the winning drive going with an 8-yard run.
Maybe the 49ers make that play this time in New Orleans. Maybe they don’t. But to expect the 49ers as we know them to shut down operations in the face of a more complicated salary structure isn’t the way to bet.
The biggest reason the window stays open is Purdy, who executes the position to Shanahan’s exacting specifications and then some.
The 2023 season was a season-long referendum on whether Purdy carried the 49ers or the 49ers carried Purdy. Both were true.
All Purdy did was pass for 4,280 yards, throw 31 touchdowns (with just 11 interceptions), complete 69.4 percent of his passes, and post a regular season passer rating of 113.0 that was better than the best of 49ers legends – and Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks – Steve Young (112.8 in 1994) and Joe Montana (112.4 in 1989).
Purdy rallied the 49ers from behind to beat Green Bay and Detroit in the playoffs, then brought the 49ers from behind three times in the Super Bowl. He was resilient enough to bounce back from his one bad game (four interceptions against Baltimore) on a Thanksgiving national stage.
Whatever physical limitations led to Purdy’s selection as the last pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, he showed the ability to strike both short and downfield, go off schedule, and make plays with his legs.
Yes, he’s a system quarterback. One of the best. Yes, he’s a game manager. One of the best. He’s also meticulous about preparation, impervious to criticism, and has a healthy perspective on life outside of football.
As good as Purdy’s teammates are, he’s made them better, and there’s every reason to think that will continue as long as he’s paired with Shanahan in a system he fits perfectly.
Think in terms of Sean Payton and Drew Brees. In terms of physical stature and arm strength, Brees was never anyone’s idea of the modern prototype, especially after signing with New Orleans with a damaged shoulder. Yet Payton, Brees, and the Saints were consistent winners, and they captured a Super Bowl following the 2009 season.
With a rotating cast of linemen and receivers, Brees, mostly under Payton’s guidance, threw for more touchdowns (571) and yards (80,358) than any quarterback not named Brady.
For all the consternation about the long-term status of Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, there are more good receivers than ever coming out of college, and the 49ers might already have one of them in Ricky Pearsall, their first-round draft pick this spring.
Christian McCaffrey will be around past 2024, after the 49ers wisely extended his contract. The same with defensive end Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner. Replacing left tackle Trent Williams, 35, will be necessary soon, and tight end George Kittle, 30, has put his body through a lot.
But the 49ers have made a lot of their own breaks concerning personnel: trading for Williams to replace Joe Staley, trading for McCaffrey, and cashing in big time on draft picks such as Deommodore Lenoir (sixth round, 2021), Talanoa Hufanga (sixth round, 2021), Jauan Jennings (seventh round, 2020), Dre Greenlaw (fifth round 2019), Fred Warner (third round, 2018) and Kittle (fifth round, 2017).
Who’s to say the 49ers can’t add new pieces around Purdy on both sides of the ball and get similar results?
Chances are that among Pearsall, cornerback Renardo Green, safety Malik Mustapha, and wide receiver Jacob Cowing, there is a player or two Shanahan and Co. can use to keep the train running with Purdy acting as the engineer.
That may or may not be good enough to win another Super Bowl in 2024 and beyond. But to assume the 49ers will fade into a post-Jim Harbaugh/Trent Baalke oblivion because of their salary cap accounting is unwarranted skepticism, based on how they’ve operated over the last five years.
