Sports Mole examines the Premier League title race after Liverpool took a five-point lead on Manchester City and a nine-point lead on Arsenal.
Liverpool should arguably be considered favourites for Premier League glory after they took charge of the title race last weekend when they beat Aston Villa 2-0 at Anfield and moved five points ahead of second-placed Manchester City.
Darwin Nunez scored the Reds’ first at Anfield in the first half on Saturday, before Mohamed Salah continued his remarkable 2024-25 campaign by scoring his side’s second in the 84th minute.
The Egyptian also registered an assist for Nunez’s first-half goal, and this was the 35th time he has produced both a goal and an assist in a Premier League match, the joint most of any player alongside Wayne Rooney.
The result meant that Liverpool entered the November international break first in the top flight with 28 points from a possible 33.
Manager Arne Slot will also have been thrilled that title rivals Arsenal and Man City both dropped points, drawing with Chelsea and losing against Brighton respectively last weekend.
The Reds are now five points clear of Pep Guardiola‘s side and are already nine points ahead of Mikel Arteta‘s Gunners after just 11 league fixtures, and this gap has led to suggestions that Liverpool are now favourites to win the title.
In truth, it is far too early to say that the Merseysiders will remain so dominant throughout the course of the campaign, but with their rivals dropping so many points in the early stages of the season, Slot’s team have a great opportunity to keep themselves in front of the chasing pack.
Manchester City’s struggles
City’s 2-1 defeat against Brighton on Saturday was their fourth consecutive loss and it marked the first time that Guardiola had lost four games in a row as a coach.
Some have suggested that the Cityzens are simply going through an early-season slump and that their performances will significantly improve as the campaign progresses.
Indeed, the champions dropped six points in the first 11 games of the Premier League last term and won just once in six games between November 12 and December 16, 2023.
It is important to note that Ballon d’Or winner Rodri is unlikely to be available for the remainder of the season, and their record in his absence is poor considering their win rate since 2022-23 drops from 78% with him in the team to just 57% without.
Rodri is among a number of injury absentees, but it is notable how much weaker Guardiola’s side look without the Spaniard, particularly in defensive transition.
Additionally, many of City’s star players such as Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva are arguably past their peak performance levels given they are all over the age of 30.
Arsenal’s struggles
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Many had thought that Arsenal would be at the front of the queue to take advantage of City’s weaknesses this season, but the Gunners have been hugely underwhelming this campaign, drawing 1-1 with Chelsea last Sunday despite taking a 1-0 lead in the 60th minute.
It should be noted that Arteta’s side have already played Man City, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa away from home, and have been reduced to 10 men in three separate games.
However, it would be disingenuous to suggest that the Gunners have simply been unlucky this term, with their usually rock solid defence looking vulnerable, and their reliable attack appearing somewhat blunt.
Arsenal have scored 18 times and conceded on 12 occasions in the league, and these records make them the division’s seventh best offensive and joint fourth best defensive team.
While these figures are not necessarily poor, the Gunners are currently on track to score roughly 30 fewer goals and concede 12 more times than they did in 2023-24.
Outside of Bukayo Saka, who can hold his head up high for his showings this season, few can say they have performed well in the final third, while goalkeeper David Raya has faced far too many shots.
This is Arteta’s sixth season in charge of the Gunners and while he undoubtedly deserves credit for his work at Arsenal, it should be concerning that they are already so many points behind Liverpool.
Should Liverpool be favourites?
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Manchester City have won six of the last seven Premier League titles, and the only proven way to beat them to first place has been to build an unassailable lead early in the season.
When Jurgen Klopp‘s Liverpool side won the title in 2019-20, his team won 26 of their first 27 league matches, drawing the other one against Manchester United in October 2019.
Slot’s side have already built a five-point lead on the champions and could extend that gap to eight points when the teams face off at Anfield on December 1.
Given the strengths of Liverpool in offensive transition and the fact that City will be without Rodri, it would not be unfair to expect the Reds to head into that clash as favourites.
If the Merseysiders were to move eight points ahead of the Champions, it is difficult to see how City would be able to close that gap.
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As for Arsenal, the Gunners are yet to reach 90 points under Arteta, and considering six of the last eight titles have been won with 90 or more points, it remains to be seen whether his side have the capacity to win the Premier League title.
It is also worthwhile to highlight that Arsenal are currently averaging 1.73 points per game, and even if they were to return to last season’s average of 2.34 from now until the end of 2024-25, they would end the current campaign on roughly 82 points.
Another advantage that the Reds have on Arsenal and Manchester City is that they have largely been able to field most of their strongest XI this term, including the likes of Virgil van Dijk, Mohamed Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold, who many believe to be among the best in their respective positions.
Liverpool are well poised to capitalise on their rivals’ weaknesses, and there is every chance that Slot may win the Premier League title in his first season at Anfield.
Sports Mole editor Barney Corkhill spoke with Liverpool expert David Lynch to discuss whether Liverpool should be considered favourites to win the title in the aftermath of their win against Aston Villa at Anfield on Saturday evening.
Press play on the video at the top of this article to hear the full discussion.
