MLB Playoff Push: How interesting can Tigers make the AL post-season race?

After dropping three of four to the Kansas City Royals to open August, the Detroit Tigers were an afterthought in the American League playoff picture.

They were 53-60, 10 games back of the final wild-card spot, 15 games out in the AL Central and losers of nine of their last 12.

But since dropping that series in early August, there hasn’t been a better team in baseball. Behind a rejuvenated pitching staff, headlined by Cy Young frontrunner Tarik Skubal, the Tigers have posted a 24-13 record over that span, surging back into contention for a post-season spot.

Detroit enters play Monday 2.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins in the wild-card race after winning its third straight series over the weekend against the Baltimore Orioles.

In the second half, Tigers pitchers own an MLB-best 3.09 ERA, with the likes of Brant Hurter, Tyler Holton and Jason Foley stepping up their games to support Skubal on the mound.

The Tigers will get the chance to make up some more ground this week against a pair of teams currently in wild-card position, as they are lined for series against the Royals and Orioles.

With two weeks remaining until the end of the regular season, the AL wild-card race is far from the only battle for post-season positioning going on across baseball, so let’s take a look at how the playoff picture is shaping up.

IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY

American League

No. 1 and AL East-leading New York Yankees (87-63): Bye
No. 2 and AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians (86-64): Bye
No. 3 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (81-68) vs. No. 6 Minnesota Twins (79-70)
No. 4 Baltimore Orioles (84-66) vs. No. 5 Kansas City Royals (82-68)

National League

No. 1 and NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies (90-59): Bye
No. 2 and NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (87-61): Bye
No. 3 and NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (86-63) vs. No. 6 New York Mets (81-68)
No. 4 San Diego Padres (85-65) vs. No. 5 Arizona Diamondbacks (83-66)

WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE

With the Atlanta Braves and Mets tied at 81-68, there could be a tiebreaker scenario enacted if they were to stay that way through the end of the regular season. The first tiebreak falls to the teams’ records in head-to-head matchups. The NL East foes are currently deadlocked at 5-5 in their 10 contests against one another, but they are scheduled to square off from Sept. 24 to 26 in Atlanta in a three-game series that could have some serious playoff implications.

In the American League race, the Tigers, Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox are the three clubs with the best chances at throwing a wrench into the current playoff picture.

The Mariners enter the week riding high, winners of three straight and eight of their last 11, as they look to hunt down the Houston Astros in the AL West or try to secure a wild-card spot themselves. Like Detroit, Seattle is 2.5 back of the Twins, but with a head-to-head series on tap in Houston next week, the Mariners likely have designs on capturing a division crown and home playoff series.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox sit 4.5 games back of the Twins, but would need to jump Minnesota, Detroit and Seattle to secure a post-season spot. Boston is set to host the Twins at Fenway this weekend, so the Red Sox need to take care of business themselves and rely on teams around them to fall out of the race.

MATCHUPS WITH PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS TO WATCH THIS WEEK

Tigers at Royals — If the Tigers have been the hottest team in baseball, the Royals aren’t all that far behind. Kansas City has won six of its last nine, and MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr. is riding an eight-game on-base streak entering the series. There will be some elite pitching on display in the series, as the Royals’ star starters Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans are scheduled to pitch Monday and Tuesday, while Skubal is lined up to take the ball for Detroit on Wednesday. While it’s far more likely Detroit chases down the Twins than the Royals, the Tigers could make up ground on both AL Central opponents with a series win, as Minnesota is headed to Cleveland for a four-game set with the Guardians.

Phillies at Brewers — As far as first-round byes go in the National League, the Phillies and Dodgers seem to be well on their way to punching a ticket to the NLDS. However, the Brewers could play spoiler among the NL powerhouses, and it would start with this week’s series against Philadelphia. With rookie Jackson Chourio turning into a superstar before our very eyes, Milwaukee has withstood the loss of Christian Yelich and ran away with the NL Central in the second half. But nothing has come easily against the Phillies recently, with Kyle Schwarber swatting homers left, right and centre and Bryce Harper looking like his MVP self once again, so the Brewers have their work cut out for them this week at American Family Field.

Yankees at Mariners — After a severe summer swoon that saw them blow a 10-game lead in the AL West in just 24 games, the Mariners are trying to make up for lost time late. Julio Rodriguez is heating up at the right time, picking up hits in 11 of Seattle’s 13 contests in September. Now, they’ll be tasked with slowing history as Aaron Judge rides into town with homers in two straight games, giving him 53 on the season. The Yankees are coming off a series win over the Red Sox, giving them a three-game cushion in the AL East, so it will be up to Seattle’s strong pitching to cool down the Bronx Bombers as it continues to chase down the Astros.

Astros at Padres — Speaking of those Astros, they’re set for what should be a very exciting series in San Diego against the Padres. Houston recently returned Kyle Tucker from the injured list and has won four straight, albeit against the Angels and A’s. Starters Spencer Arrighetti, Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez are the probable pitchers in the series, and since Aug. 1, all three have ERAs below 3.00, racking a combined 147 strikeouts over 129.0 innings. San Diego is coming off a sweep of the Giants and is battling for home-field advantage over the Diamondbacks in a potential wild-card series.

PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Monday morning, in terms of playoff odds among teams battling for post-season spots.

American League

New York’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 97.9% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 97.9%

Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 99.7% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.9%

Kansas City’s FanGraphs odds: 97.0% | Kansas City’s Baseball Reference odds: 98.7%

Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 84.6% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 73.9%

Detroit’s FanGraphs odds: 9.8% | Detroit’s Baseball Reference odds: 12.7%

Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 8.4% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 13.2%

Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 2.5% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 3.3%

National League

Philadelphia’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Philadelphia’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Los Angeles’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Los Angeles’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Milwaukee’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Milwaukee’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

San Diego’s FanGraphs odds: 98.7% | San Diego’s Baseball Reference odds: 96.3%

Arizona’s FanGraphs odds: 89.8% |Arizona’s Baseball Reference odds: 83.9%

New York’s FanGraphs odds: 43.8% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 60.9%

Atlanta’s FanGraphs odds: 67.6% | Atlanta’s Baseball Reference odds: 58.5%

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