MLB Playoff Push: Second-half run has Mets ready to crash post-season picture

These New York Mets weren’t supposed to be here.

After shipping out several key veterans, including stars Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the 2023 trade deadline and adding on the margins in the off-season, 2024 was set to be a transition year in New York.

But between a mid-season spark that may or may not have been provided by McDonald’s mascot Grimace, José Iglesias, aka ‘Candelita‘, shifting the clubhouse vibes and Francisco Lindor making a case for MVP, the Mets have found a winning formula and are holding down a wild-card spot in the National League.

Even as Lindor is sidelined with an ailing back, New York has won four consecutive games and scored 10 or more runs in three straight contests for the first time in franchise history.

Since the beginning of September, the Mets have rattled off an MLB-best 13 wins, posting the second-best team ERA (2.36) and scoring the fourth-most runs in baseball (91) to surge past the Atlanta Braves with just over a week to go in the season.

Lindor has undoubtedly been the face of New York’s post-season efforts, but he’s quietly gotten help from across the roster. Pete Alonso has hit 15 home runs since the All-Star break, all five members of the Mets’ rotation have ERAs sitting at 3.00 or lower in September and Edwin Diaz has given up just one run over his last 11 outings, striking out 51.4 per cent of the hitters he’s faced in the process.

However, the work still isn’t done for the Mets, who have MLB’s most difficult remaining schedule, with series against the Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers and Braves on tap for the final 10 days of the regular season.

As New York and the rest of MLB’s post-season contenders head into the second last weekend of September baseball, here is a look at how all the playoff races are lining up.

IF THE POST-SEASON STARTED TODAY

American League

No. 1 and AL East-leading New York Yankees (89-64): Bye
No. 2 and AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians (89-65 ): Bye
No. 3 and AL West-leading Houston Astros (83-70) vs. No. 6 Minnesota Twins (80-73)
No. 4 Baltimore Orioles (85-68) vs. No. 5 Kansas City Royals (82-71)
*Twins hold tiebreaker over Detroit Tigers (80-73)

National League

No. 1 and NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies (91-62): Bye
No. 2 and NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (91-62): Bye
No. 3 and NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers (88-65) vs. No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks (85-68)
No. 4 San Diego Padres (87-66) vs. No. 5 New York Mets (85-68)
*Phillies hold tiebreaker over Dodgers
*Mets hold tiebreaker over Diamondbacks

WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE

In the National League race, all eyes are on the Braves and how much ground they can make up, if any, this weekend with a favourable three-game series against the Miami Marlins before welcoming the Mets to Truist Park on Tuesday.

Atlanta enters play Friday two games behind both New York and Arizona in the wild-card hunt, and with both the Mets and Diamondbacks matched up with division leaders in the Phillies and Brewers, respectively, the pressure is on the Braves to take care of business against the lowly Marlins.

On the American League side, the Boston Red Sox will get a last chance at saving their post-season hopes this weekend with a three-game set against the Twins. Boston is coming off a series loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, which dropped it to 6-11 in September, yet it remains four games back of a playoff position.

Even if the Red Sox manage to flip the script against the Twins, they will need help from the Tigers and Seattle Mariners, who are both vying for that final berth in the AL. Detroit cemented its status as the hottest team in baseball with a sweep of the Royals this week, and Seattle looks to be firmly in wild-card hunt territory after falling five games out of the AL West race with a sloppy series loss to the Yankees.

THREE BURNING QUESTIONS FOR THE PLAYOFF RACE THIS WEEKEND

Can the Tigers keep rolling? Detroit has won four straight series and catapulted itself from the bottom of the wild-card race to tied for the final spot. One of those series wins came over the Orioles, who the Tigers are set to face again over the weekend. When the two teams squared off at Comerica Park last week, Detroit pitchers held Baltimore to six runs over three games, including a bid for MLB’s first-ever combined perfect game. Even though Cy Young favourite Tarik Skubal won’t take the mound in the series, the Orioles haven’t scored more than five runs in a game against a team above .500 since Aug. 23.

Will the Phillies clinch the NL East? This week, we saw the Brewers, Guardians, Yankees and Dodgers secure their spot in the 2024 post-season, and there’s a good chance some more champagne will be popped over the weekend. The Phillies’ magic number is one, and since they are playing the Mets, one win will clinch their first NL East title since 2011. Philadelphia is also battling for home-field advantage through the NLCS, so even with its sizeable division lead, there will be something to play for through the end of the regular season for Bryce Harper and Co.

Which Twins team shows up at Fenway? Minnesota has lost 20 of its last 30 games, and for the first time since May, the Twins aren’t in sole control of a playoff spot. Now, with their backs up against the wall, we’ll learn what the reigning AL Central champs are made of. The Twins have three games remaining against each of the Red Sox, Marlins and Orioles, and with the tiebreaker over the Tigers in their back pocket, they do control their own destiny. Minnesota has struggled on both sides of the ball amid its recent downturn, but with the recent return of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, the Twins’ hope is that the stars can get back up to speed quickly and help stabilize the club’s late-summer freefall, and they’ll get the chance against the struggling Red Sox.

PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Here is what FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are projecting, as of Friday morning, in terms of playoff odds among teams battling for post-season spots.

American League

New York’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%

Cleveland’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Cleveland’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Houston’s FanGraphs odds: 99.3% | Houston’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.4%

Baltimore’s FanGraphs odds: 99.6% | Baltimore’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.4%

Kansas City’s FanGraphs odds: 90.3% | Kansas City’s Baseball Reference odds: 88.1%

Minnesota’s FanGraphs odds: 62.4% | Minnesota’s Baseball Reference odds: 50.3%

Detroit’s FanGraphs odds: 42.5% | Detroit’s Baseball Reference odds: 55.1%

Seattle’s FanGraphs odds: 5.1% | Seattle’s Baseball Reference odds: 7.3%

Boston’s FanGraphs odds: 0.7% | Boston’s Baseball Reference odds: 0.4%

National League

Philadelphia’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Philadelphia’s Baseball Reference odds: >99.9%

Los Angeles’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Los Angeles’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%

Milwaukee’s FanGraphs odds: 100% | Milwaukee’s Baseball Reference odds: 100%

San Diego’s FanGraphs odds: 99.4% | San Diego’s Baseball Reference odds: 99.4%

New York’s FanGraphs odds: 64.0% | New York’s Baseball Reference odds: 82.8%

Arizona’s FanGraphs odds: 81.5% |Arizona’s Baseball Reference odds: 84.0%

Atlanta’s FanGraphs odds: 55.1% | Atlanta’s Baseball Reference odds: 33.7%

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