In an attempt to combat climate change, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul in January announced a goal to plant 25 million trees by the end of 2033.
Amherst wanted to add 1 million trees in 5 years. It didn’t come close, but says plan wasn’t a failure
Amherst officials blame the program’s failure to take root on the Covid-19 outbreak, which shut down the world just four months later, and on the soaring cost of trees in recent years.
It’s a bold goal. Is it possible?
“We really believe that this goal is absolutely achievable and we’re really excited to get people together around trees,” said Fiona Watt, the state Department of Environmental Conservation’s director of lands and forests.
Let’s do the math:
To plant 25 million trees by the end of 2033, the state needs to plant 2.5 million trees a year.
But trees in New York usually can’t be planted when the ground is frozen, meaning the planting season could be just March through November.
Can you dig it?
Matthew Dembski, left, and Luis Suzanna, volunteers from M&T Bank, dig a hole to plant a tree in Thomas F. Higgins Natural Habitat Park in Buffalo on Oct. 25. Volunteers planted 15 trees in the park with the help of a federal grant.
That would mean more than 9,000 trees would need to be planted per day during the planting season to achieve the state’s goal. And that’s if the state began planting this past season.
Then there’s the question of where the trees could be planted.
For many of the 25 million trees, the state wants to turn inactive farmland into forests. With an estimated 1.7 million acres of inactive farmland in the state, that would mean planting about 15 trees per acre if all landowners buy in with the tree-planting goal − far below standard forest planting rates of 150 to 300 trees per acre.
Millions of trees also could be planted in cities along streets and in parks.
Hochul announced the goal along with a $47 million investment. About $15 million of that is set to go to grants to municipalities to plant trees.
Chestnut Ridge Nursery
Bob Smith of Chestnut Ridge Nursery prepares to dip the roots of a freshly harvested tree into a vat of polymer hydrogel at his Springville farm on Oct. 10. The gel is used to trap moisture in the roots while the tree is transported and planted.
Additionally, the state allocated $32 million to modernize its Saratoga Tree Nursery over the next several years so it can kick up production of seedlings from about 1.5 million per year to 6 million to 8 million, Watt said.
Private sector tree nurseries and seed banks may need to boost production as well to help the state meet the goal.
“It’s absolutely possible,” said Colin Beier, an associate professor in the department of sustainable resources management at the SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry. “Does it solve the whole problem of climate change? Absolutely not.”
The 25 million tree target is meant to, at least in part, “advance efforts to meet the Climate Act’s net-zero goal,” according to the governor’s January announcement.
Under the 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, the state set a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 85% below 1990 levels. Part of meeting that target includes carbon sequestration, which trees are particularly good at doing.
As trees grow, they take in carbon dioxide from the environment through photosynthesis. That carbon then gets stored in their trunks, roots and branches.
The forests of New York offset about 8% of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions through carbon sequestration, said Watt, of the DEC.
The goal is to get that figure up to 15%, she added.
“We do have a significant goal in front of us to increase the work that our forests are doing right now in carbon sequestration and carbon storage,” Watt said. “We estimate we’re going to need to increase forested land in the state by about 1.5 million acres, maybe a little bit more, in order to help meet that 2050 goal of net zero.”
Planting 25 million trees is a vital part of that, Watt noted, but it’s likely even more trees than that will be needed to successfully boost the state’s forest carbon sequestration.
If an acre of land can fit 150 to 300 trees, the state could reforest about 83,000 to 167,000 acres by planting 25 million trees.
To fully reforest 1.5 million acres, the state would need to plant 225 million to 450 million trees.
“And then the whole thing is survivability: Are these all going to survive?” asked John Bartow, executive director of the Empire State Forest Products Association, a logging industry organization.
City tree disparity
On Kilhoffer Street north of East Ferry Street in Buffalo, there is a single tree planted in the public right of way on May 13, 2024.
Forests today cover more than 60% of New York, or about 18 million acres. That’s up dramatically from the 20% that was estimated to be forested in the beginning of the 1900s as the state’s history of heavy logging to make room for farming and development, as well as disease and bugs, devastated its forests.
Threats to forests now include development − including urban sprawl and making way for renewable energy projects − climate change, and continued threats from disease and bugs. Plus, New York’s severe overpopulation of deer means many tree species are mowed down before they can mature.
While many protest logging in New York, Watt said it’s here to stay, even with the 25 million tree goal.
Could Western New York see wildfires?
Western New Yorkers are accustomed to ice and snow. But wildfires? “If we were to dry out like it did further east and continue to have a dry winter, then yes, there could be the potential for that,” said Aaron Reynolds, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
“Harvesting in a sustainable manner with suitable forest regeneration really can improve forest health and resilience,” Watt said. “It also certainly provides diverse habitat for wildlife, increases carbon sequestration because healthier forests tend to withstand invasive species, and they’re more resilient to extreme weather.”
One key component of sustainable logging is maintaining a balance: You can’t cut down more trees than you plant, Bartow said.
It will be important for the state to draw up long-term contracts with landowners who agree to plant trees on their property to ensure those trees aren’t cut down until they have been growing for at least a few decades, said Jessica Ottney Mahar, the Nature Conservancy’s New York policy and strategy director.
New York’s 25 million goal is part of a larger goal adopted by the Conference of Great Lakes St. Lawrence Governors & Premiers of planting 250 million trees by the end of 2033. New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota as well as the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Québec are taking part in the tree-planting goal.
Individually, Wisconsin set a goal of planting 100 million trees before 2030, and Michigan wants to plant 50 million by the same year.
In New York, the 25 million tree goal by the end of 2033 will only be possible with buy-in from landowners, the logging industry, tree nurseries and the broader public.
“We’re not kidding ourselves, the goal is very, very ambitious,” Ottney Mahar said. “One of the things setting a goal like this does is create not only that ambition, but also draws attention to all of the different issues that need to be addressed to achieve goals like this.”
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