Sports Mole previews Saturday’s ATP Finals semi-final between Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
In-form Alexander Zverev will back himself to end a three-match losing run against Taylor Fritz when the pair face off in Saturday’s ATP World Tour Finals semi-final.
The German star defeated Carlos Alcaraz to go three for three in the round-robin and the favourite to beat Fritz and advance to the championship match in Turin despite the American having the upper hand in their rivalry.
Match preview
Can anyone stop Zverev in this form? The German finally faced break points in Turin against Alcaraz, having avoided presenting opportunities to Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud, but had enough to defeat the Spaniard 7-6(5), 6-4 in almost two hours.
That triumph, his eighth consecutive victory, confirmed the 27-year-old will end 2024 in the No. 2 position on the ATP Tour, a satisfying year for the two-time ATP Finals champion, who aims for a ninth straight tour triumph in Saturday’s semi.
Defeating Alcaraz took Zverev to 69 victories this season, one more than world No. 1 Jannik Sinner (68), making the German player the first to hit that number since Andy Murray‘s 78 in 2016.
The Scotsman ended that year by triumphing in the year-end tournament, and a similar outcome will please Zverev, who seeks a third success at the season finale to follow victories in 2018 and 2021.
Although he cannot afford to look that far ahead, the 27-year-old can be confident in his chances of advancing to Sunday’s final for a chance to end an impressive year positively.
© Imago
On the opposite side of the net is Fritz, who needed to dig deep to advance from the Ilie Nastase Group after beating Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur in the round-robin stage.
The second of those victories needed the US Open finalist to find solutions to his Australian opponent’s commendable court coverage, but he did what was required to seal a 5-7, 6-4, 6-3 success.
That win means Fritz has matched Andy Roddick (2003, 2004 and 2007) in progressing to the ATP Finals last four more than once, having reached the semis in 2022 and this year, and he aims to secure another top-10 win to play Sunday’s championship match.
Success over De Minaur was his ninth against that elite group in 2024, thus seeing him emulate Pete Sampras (10) and Andre Agassi (12) for most top-10 wins by an American player in a single season since 1999.
Given Fritz’s ongoing streak of wins against Saturday’s opponent, the American will hope to outdo the higher-ranked player to enter double figures against elite players and end the German’s run of victories.
Tournament so far
Alexander Zverev:
Round robin: vs. Andrey Rublev 6-4 6-4
Round robin: vs. Casper Ruud 7-6[3] 6-3
Round robin: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 7-6[5] 6-4
Taylor Fritz:
Round robin: vs. Daniil Medvedev 6-4 6-3
Round robin: vs. Jannik Sinner 4-6 4-6
Round robin: vs. Alex de Minaur 5-7 6-4 6-3
Head To Head
Laver Cup (2024) – Round robin: Fritz 6-4 7-5
US Open (2024) – Quarter-finals: Fritz 7-6(7-2) 3-6 6-4 7-6(7-3)
Wimbledon (2024) – Fourth round: Fritz 4-6 6-7 (7-4) 6-4 7-6 (7-3) 6-3
Italian Open (2024) – Quarter-finals: Zverev 6-4 6-3
United Cup (2023) – Round robin: Fritz 6-1 6-4
ATP Cup (2022) – Round robin: Zverev 6-4 6-4
BNP Paribas Open (2021) – Quarter-finals: Fritz 4-6 6-3 7-6 (7-3)
Wimbledon (2021) – Third round: Zverev 6-7 (7-3) 6-4 6-3 7-6 (7-4)
Swiss Indoors (2019) – Second round: Fritz 7-6 (9-7) 6-4
Wimbledon (2018) – Second round: Zverev 6-4 5-7 6-7 (7-0) 6-1 6-2
Citi Open (2016) – Second round: Zverev 6-4 6-2
While Zverev once held a 2-0 and 3-1 record against Fritz, the American player now leads their head-to-head 6-5 entering Saturday’s semi-final.
The eight-time tour-level titlist has won three matches on the trot and holds a 4-1 record over their last five meetings.
The German’s last victory over Fritz was en route to the Rome Masters title, and he hopes to snap an ongoing 0-3 run against the American for his ninth top-10 victory in 2024.
We say: Zverev to win in three sets
Although Fritz could take a set off Zverev, the German’s eight-match winning run could become nine after Saturday’s last-four battle.
Not only is the world No. 2 serving well, but he is also menacing on both wings, thus giving him the edge to end his losing run against the American No. 1 to advance to Sunday’s final.
