Sports Mole previews Wednesday’s ATP Finals round-robin match between Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Given the seeming physical issues Carlos Alcaraz faced in his ATP World Tour Finals opener, Andrey Rublev will fancy his chances against the Spaniard in Wednesday’s round-robin match. The 21-year-old was out-of-sorts in his tournament-opening loss to Casper Ruud, while Rublev was outmanoeuvred by Alexander Zverev on Monday night.
Match preview
© Imago Rublev’s performance against Zverev will have sufficed against most opponents on tour, but the German, who gave little away on serve and converted two break opportunities, outdid the 27-year-old 16-time tour champion. The Russian will back himself to muster chances in match two in Turin, given Alcaraz’s ill health and the Spaniard’s attacking style typically leading to more errors when he plays far from perfect tennis. It remains to be seen which version of the 21-year-old steps on the court on Wednesday, but Rublev aims to record a second success this season against the younger player to follow his three-set triumph in Madrid months back. Despite his physical advantage over the Spanish star, the 27-year-old’s recent poor form casts doubt on a straightforward outcome for this match. Rublev enters the match having lost three of his previous four matches, with his only success in that period coming last week in Metz before withdrawing to focus on the season finale. With neither player in peak form, the upcoming encounter is particularly intriguing due to the qualification upshots.Tournament so far
Carlos Alcaraz: Round robin: vs. Casper Ruud 1-6 5-7 Andrey Rublev: Round robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 4-6 4-6
Head To Head
Madrid Masters (2024) – Quarter-final: Rublev 4-6 6-3 6-2 ATP Finals (2023) – Round robin: Alcaraz 7-5 6-2 Wednesday is a rematch of last year’s round-robin encounter, secured by Alcaraz in straight sets (7-5, 6-2). Rublev got his revenge on the clay courts in Madrid in their second meeting on the tour, notching a turnaround success at the Masters event. The Russian has a mixed 3-4 record against top-10 opponents in 2024, although two of his three triumphs were against Alcaraz in Madrid and Jannik Sinner in Canada; however, he heads into Wednesday on a three-match losing streak against that elite group.
We say: Alcaraz to win in three sets
If Alcaraz is healthier after struggling against Ruud, he should possess the tools to overcome Rublev. The Russian has been plagued by inconsistent performances leading up to the Finals, particularly in recent tournaments, and that dip in form, combined with Alcaraz’s superior court coverage and shot-making when healthy, makes the Spaniard the likely victor.
