Sports Mole previews Tuesday’s ATP Finals round-robin match between Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
After false starts in their tournament openers, Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur bid for much-needed triumphs in Tuesday’s ATP World Tour Finals round-robin encounter.
The Russian was beaten by Taylor Fritz in two sets, while the Australian debutant could not sustain a strong start against year-end No. 1 Jannik Sinner on day one.
Match preview
Familiar failings resurfaced in Medvedev’s 4-6, 3-6 loss to US Open finalist Fritz on Sunday, as the Russian’s seven double faults in set one undermined his play and prevented momentum on serve.
Although those errors on his deliveries reduced significantly afterwards — he double-faulted once in the second set — the 28-year-old got little joy on his American opponent’s serve, failing to exploit three break points.
Eight mistakes on serve have taken the 2020 Finals champion to 292 double-faults in 2024, accounting for 15.2% of his career total (1923), and it will be interesting to see if solutions are found heading into a 10th ATP Tour match-up with De Minaur.
Now at 45-20 for the season after the Fritz loss, the world No. 4 hopes to secure a win in match two to give himself a chance going into the final round-robin match against Sinner.
Although Medvedev had a decent Asian swing, reaching the semi-final in Beijing and quarters in Shanghai, he faces his Australian opponent after consecutive defeats across two competitions — Alexei Popyrin in Paris and Fritz in Turin — and aims to end his 0-2 run against the debutant.
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Despite converting his first break-point opportunity early on against Sinner, that was De Minaur’s only boost in the 3-6, 4-6 loss to the world No. 1.
Having capitalised on Sinner’s slow start, the home player raised his level for the remainder of the opening set, breaking the 25-year-old twice and notching one more in the fifth game of set two for the victory.
The Australian No. 1 hopes to carry lessons from his first appearance at the Finals into another match against Medvedev, keen to record a fourth triumph over the Russian and second in 2024.
De Minaur won their last meeting in four sets at the French Open, and he bids for consecutive triumphs over the 20-time Tour titlist.
A beneficiary of Novak Djokovic‘s withdrawal, the nine-time champion could make his mark in Turin with a stunning victory against a former Finals champion.
Tournament so far
Daniil Medvedev:
Round robin: vs. Taylor Fritz 4-6 3-6
Alex de Minaur:
Round robin: vs. Jannik Sinner 3-6, 4-6
Head To Head
French Open (2024) – Fourth round: De Minaur 4-6 6-2 6-1 6-3
Beijing (2023) – Round of 16: Medvedev 7-6(3) 6-3
US Open (2023) – Fourth round: Medvedev 2-6 6-4 6-1 6-2
Canada Masters (2023) – Quarter-final: De Minaur 7-6(7) 7-5
Paris Masters (2022) – Round of 32: De Minaur 6-4 2-6 7-5
ATP Cup (2022) – Round robin: Medvedev 6-4 6-2
Paris Masters (2020) – Round of 16: Medvedev 5-7 6-2 6-2
Winston-Salem (2018) – Round of 32: Medvedev 6-3 6-3
Sydney (2018) – Final: Medvedev 1-6 6-4 7-5
While Medvedev leads their head-to-head 6-3, four of the Russian’s wins came in the pair’s first tour-level encounters.
De Minaur has responded with three wins in the recent five and seeks to improve to 4-2 in their current stretch of meetings.
The Australian player is 0-2 against top-10 players since beating Medvedev at Roland Garros, falling to Alexander Zverev in Paris months back and Sinner on Sunday, and he aims to end that losing streak for a sixth success against that elite group in 2024.
We say: De Minaur to win in three sets
Despite Medvedev’s superior experience of the year-end tournament, mistakes on serve could weaken his chances against a motivated De Minaur, and we back the Australian player to stun the former world No. 1.
