Sports Mole previews Saturday’s MLS Playoffs clash between New York City FC and New York Red Bulls, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
In what promises to be the biggest-ever Hudson River Derby, New York City FC and the New York Red Bulls will square off in the Eastern Conference semi-finals on Saturday at Citi Field.
It will be the first time these arch-rivals face each other in the MLS Cup playoffs after the Boys in Blue ousted FC Cincinnati in round one on penalties, while the Red Bulls stunned the Columbus Crew in a shootout as well.
Match preview
It felt as though their series with Cincy would never end, but at the end of the day, the Pigeons held their nerve from the spot and were aided by some heroic goalkeeping.
New York City missed three opportunities to win their game three shootout against the 2023 Supporters’ Shield winners before finally prevailing 6-5 after the game finished 0-0 in normal time.
Saturday will mark their first appearance in the second round of the playoffs since 2022, with New York City winning their last two games at this stage of the post-season.
Nick Cushing has been through a whirlwind of ups and downs this season as the head coach of this team, but with a victory this weekend, he would become the first manager in club history to qualify for two Eastern Conference finals.
NYCFC have a 100% record in the playoffs at Citi Field, winning both encounters in convincing fashion by a combined margin of 6-1.
In 2024, they swept their regular-season series against the Red Bulls, claiming a 2-1 triumph in Queens and winning 5-1 at Red Bull Arena.
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The Red Bulls pulled off arguably the biggest playoff upset in their history when they swept the reigning MLS Cup champions earlier this month.
It was the first time the club had advanced beyond the opening round of the post-season since 2017, when they defeated the Chicago Fire 4-0.
Coming into this game, Sandro Schwarz‘s men have won two of their previous three MLS affairs away from home, and on Saturday, they can win consecutive road games in the same post-season for the first time since 2017.
That was the last time the Red Bulls were eliminated in the Eastern Conference semi-finals, losing their tie against Toronto on away goals.
They have emerged victorious from their last two playoff contests when netting multiple times and have not lost when doing so since the opening round in 2020 (3-2 versus the Columbus Crew).
While the Red Bulls have not fared well this season versus NYCFC, they have never suffered three successive defeats against them in the same year.
New York City FC MLS Playoffs form:
New York City FC form (all competitions):
New York Red Bulls MLS Playoffs form:
New York Red Bulls form (all competitions):
Team News
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In game three of their opening round series versus Cincy, New York City were once again minus Malachi Jones, who has missed a good portion of the year due to a leg injury.
Alonso Martinez (Costa Rica), Tayvon Gray (Jamaica), Jovan Mijatovic (Serbia U-21) and Christian McFarlane (England U-18) were away during the international break last week but will all be available on Saturday.
Matt Freese was outstanding in goal for the Boys in Blue the last time out, stopping the four shots that he faced in normal time and making three penalty saves before Mitja Ilenic slotted home the winner from 12 yards away.
For the Red Bulls, Serge Ngoma was on the bench for their previous game but did not feature because of a minor groin knock, while Roald Mitchell and Kyle Duncan were sidelined with knee injuries.
Carlos Coronel was on duty for Paraguay during the international window, Julian Hall was called up to the USA U-17 squad and Emil Forsberg was added to the Sweden team, though all three of them should be back for this match.
Dante Vanzeir and Forsberg scored in normal time of their previous affair, though it was Coronel who was the hero, saving three successive Columbus penalties before Daniel Edelman converted his spot kick to send them into the next round.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Freese; Ilenic, Martins, Haak, O’Toole; Parks, Sands; Wolf, Moralez, Rodriguez; Martinez
New York Red Bulls possible starting lineup:
Coronel; D. Nealis, Reyes, S. Nealis; Harper, Carmona, Edelman, Tolkin; Vanzeir, Forsberg; Morgan
We say: New York City FC 2-0 New York Red Bulls
Saturday will mark 20 days since the Red Bulls last played a league game, and we believe such a lengthy layoff will impact them on the field against an NYCFC side that have looked incredibly sharp and cohesive at Citi Field.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
