Heading into the trade deadline the Red Sox had every reason to believe a playoff spot was within reach. The club sat just 1.5 games below the postseason cutline on the morning of July 30, so the Sox opted to buy at the deadline, bringing in reinforcements to help shore up their weaknesses and set the club up for a strong finish.
Five weeks later, things obviously haven’t worked out.
Over the past month-plus since the deadline the Red Sox have gone 15-20 entering Saturday and have fallen out of the American League Wild Card picture. They’re now once again hovering around .500, and the trade deadline additions who were supposed to help put the Red Sox over the top have collectively failed to deliver.
The Red Sox made five moves ahead of the deadline, four of which were primarily intended to bolster the big league roster. The club brought back left-hander James Paxton, acquired right-handed relievers Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia, and traded for catcher Danny Jansen to help add another right-handed bat to balance the lineup.
The fifth deal, in which the Red Sox swapped former first-round infielder Nick Yorke for former first-round pitcher Quinn Priester, was always made with an eye towards the future.
Paxton, who had been inconsistent but available through his first half-season in Los Angeles, only made it five pitches into his third start with the Red Sox before he suffered a partially torn calf that will probably sideline him for the rest of the season. He ultimately posted a 4.09 ERA in just 11 innings in his second stint with the team.
The two most urgent additions, Sims and Garcia, wound up being catastrophic misses. Sims allowed nine earned runs in 10 innings with the Red Sox, and Garcia allowed 13 earned runs in 11.1 innings. Both are now on the injured list, and their inability to stabilize the club’s teetering bullpen played a sizable role in the club’s second-half collapse.
Jansen, meanwhile, hasn’t contributed much at the plate. As of this writing he’s only batting .207 with two home runs and a .592 OPS in 20 games, and his splits against left-handed pitchers aren’t anything special.
It’s impossible to know how another player would have performed had they come to Boston instead, but with the benefit of hindsight it’s clear there are a few guys the Red Sox could have landed who may have helped keep the club in the hunt. Relievers Jason Adam (0.54 ERA, 16.2 innings) and A.J. Puk (0.56, 16.0) have been terrific since being traded to the Padres and Diamondbacks, respectively. They each look set to pitch big innings this October.
Same goes for new Orioles righty Zach Eflin (1.95, 32.0) and Houston lefty Yusei Kikuchi (2.57, 35.0), who have proven more than worth the hefty prices their new teams paid to land them.
It’s tempting to look at all this and conclude the Red Sox went about things the wrong way or shouldn’t have bought in the first place, but the truth is more complicated. Boston hadn’t gotten anywhere by standing pat or by trying to buy and sell at the same time, so Craig Breslow’s decision to pick a lane, commit and actually offload prospects in an effort to improve the major league club was commendable.
The Red Sox were right to buy, and the moves didn’t work out. Both of those things can be true, and unfortunately the club is looking at a worst-case outcome
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