Anas Sarwar, John Swinney and Kate Forbes are all up for the main prize.
The Herald’s Political Correspondent Rebecca McCurdy profiles the Scottish Labour leader and his chances.
Anas Sarwar is considered by many as the first minister in waiting. But his critics argue it is his close allegiance with Keir Starmer that could cost him the bid.
For the first time in years, Scottish Labour is looking positively towards a Scottish election.
In 2021, the party fell to a historic low of third in the Scottish Parliament, behind the Tories and the SNP.
The Scottish Labour leadership is a job that many just a few years ago would have shied away from given the scale of the challenge.
But Sarwar’s efforts have put his party back on the map after he successfully convinced voters in Scotland to back the change agenda offered by the now prime minister.
Under Sarwar’s leadership, Scottish Labour recorded an emphatic victory in July’s general election, climbing from just one MP to 37 in Westminster. And he played a major role in leading the SNP to a disastrous defeat, where it fell to just nine MPs.
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His greatest challenge, however, is yet to come. In 2026, he is hoping to beat the SNP to form an administration in Holyrood.
Polling in close but predominantly favours Sarwar to be first minister of a minority government over the SNP’s John Swinney.
However, after Starmer’s rocky few months in charge of the UK, Sarwar’s path to Bute House is unlikely to get any easier, and how he navigates his close relationship with the prime minister will be crucial.
The Scottish Labour leader has now signalled he will take a “different approach” on policy issues impacting Scotland than his UK boss.
If Labour wins in Holyrood, the party will reintroduce the universal winter fuel payment of up to £300 for pensioners in Scotland.
That is not a decision that is being taken by his UK colleagues who means tested the benefit earlier this year, warning of tough decisions amid a £22 billion black hole.
Importantly, it is not a decision the SNP-led Scottish Government has taken – although reports suggest the First Minister is “actively considering” the move in the December budget.
Sarwar is likely to now face questions from voters on why he has waited until now to announce this move.
Following the UK Government’s announcement, Mr Sarwar acknowledged the tough finances, but did argue he felt the threshold set by the DWP was too low, meaning too few pensioners would be entitled to the benefit.
But voting records show just two Scottish Labour MPs – Euan Stainbank and Kenneth Stevenson – sat the Westminster vote out while their colleagues approved it.
Since the general election, Labour has also suffered a double by-election defeat in Dundee and more recently in Edinburgh. It has been suggested the row over the winter fuel payment row could be to blame.
If Sarwar wants to be first minister in 2026, taking a different approach to Starmer and the UK Government will be important. Voters will want to see the country put before the party.
Is Anas Sarwar’s path to the first minister position an open road, or will his allegiance to Starmer represent a roadblock?
