Tennessee and Oklahoma’s top-15 matchup is the highlight of the CFB Week 4 schedule, as the Sooners gear up for their first taste of SEC action.
Despite hosting the game in the prime time 6:30 p.m. CDT Saturday slot, Oklahoma is a sizeable underdog, and the total calls for a shootout.
CFB Week 4 Tennessee vs. Oklahoma odds
Oklahoma bettors could’ve gotten Sooners +7.5 earlier in the week until a flood of cash came in on OU. PFF Greenline reports most of the money wagered is backing Oklahoma to cover the spread, and a majority of bet slips have Tennessee covering.
The over/under was also higher in the first half of the week but has since been bet down to the current 57.5 total.
As if there wasn’t enough hype surrounding Oklahoma’s first conference game, Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel’s return to Norman adds even more spice. Heupel was a Heisman Trophy runner-up QB for the Sooners back in the day and led OU to its most-recent National Championship in 2000.
Heupel later joined the Sooners coaching staff and was fired by former head coach Bob Stoops in 2014. Heupel has called the move a blessing in disguise, but there’s no doubt he’ll have extra motivation to make a statement Saturday night.
Why Tennessee could win as the favorite
QB Nico Iamaleava is a rising star for the Volunteers. Iamaleava’s 698 passing yards, 102 rushing yards and seven touchdowns give him +900 odds of winning the Heisman Trophy at Fanatics Sportsbook.
While Nico grabs the headlines, RB Dylan Sampson has been equally vital for Tennessee. Sampson has 357 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, leading the Vols to the third-best ground attack in college football.
Rounding out a loaded Tennessee squad is a defense allowing a measly four points per game. The Volunteers have been subpar at pressuring opposing QBs, but that could change against an Oklahoma offensive line that’s given up nine sacks.
Tennessee’s offense has been more explosive than Oklahoma’s, and a high-scoring matchup favors the Volunteers. Sooners’ QB Jackson Arnold has yet to surpass 175 passing yards in a game, and another lackluster outing would likely land a runaway victory for the Vols.
Why Oklahoma could win as the underdog
Arnold, a former five-star recruit, will get a boost offensively this week with the likely return of WR Nic Anderson. The sophomore missed the first three games with an injury but adds a downfield threat the Sooners have sorely missed.
Anderson tallied 798 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns last season, averaging 21 yards per reception.
Oklahoma’s offense doesn’t have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with Tennessee’s offense. The Sooners’ best shot at winning stems from moving the ball on the ground to chew the clock and set up deep shots for Arnold.
However, OU hasn’t shown enough efficiency rushing the ball. Arnold can run but has no business leading the Sooners in rushing yards through three games.
The offensive line must flip the script and perform at their best vs. Tennessee to get the win and send Memorial Stadium into a frenzy.
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma prediction
Pick: Tennessee -6.5 (-118 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is Iamaleava’s first road test in a hostile environment, and I expect Nico to lead the Volunteers to victory. Oklahoma has been strong against the run, and if the Sooners slow down Sampson, Iamaleava must make plays to get the win and cover the spread.
Offensive line has been a sore spot for the Sooners all season, and that won’t change vs. an SEC defense. Arnold has been underwhelming against inferior opponents, and it’s hard to envision that changing tonight.
