The cold front will end up isolating itself as a DANA (Isolated High Level Depression) or a cold squall in the area of the Mediterranean or the south of the mainland from Wednesday 13, remaining in the area until Saturday 16. The increase in instability will be accompanied by the entry of a humid Mediterranean flow from the east, so it is likely to produce heavy and persistent rainfall in areas of the Balearics and the Mediterranean, without ruling them out also in points of the Cantabrian and central peninsular, snow in the mountain systems.
There is considerable uncertainty regarding the position of the low and, therefore, the distribution and amount of precipitation. The most likely scenario is that rainfall in the Mediterranean area will begin on Tuesday, with greater probability in the south of the Balearics. From Wednesday onwards, rainfall is likely to spread over a large part of the mainland, in the form of snow in the mountain ranges, although the altitudes will gradually rise.
Within the uncertainty, Aemet expects it to be more intense and persistent in parts of the Balearics and the Mediterranean and, later, in the north of the Valencian Community and the coasts and pre-coastal areas of Catalonia and, with less probability, on the Mediterranean coast of Andalusia.
In these areas, some 80-100 litres could accumulate over the course of the event, even locally more than 200 litres. It is not ruled out that heavy and persistent rainfall may also occur in Murcia, the Cantabrian Sea and central Spain. It is likely that from Saturday 16 rainfall will begin to lose intensity in the Mediterranean area.
