Every Assembly race in Orange County this year has a constant: The incumbent is running for re-election.
But that doesn’t mean those seats are necessarily safe bets for whomever currently holds the office. Local and state party officials, in fact, have their eye on one in particular to either flip or hold, depending on who you ask.
That’s the coastal 74th Assembly district.
It’s a seat held by Republican Assemblymember Laurie Davies. When she was first elected in 2020, Davies was picked to represent an area considered the most Republican legislative district in Orange County. But then redistricting happened, putting Davies in the 74th Assembly District, which covers Dana Point, Laguna Niguel, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano and some northern San Diego County communities.
Ahead of the 2022 election, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the district, accounting for 35.3% of registered voters compared to 34.6% Republicans and 22.7% no party preference with 15 days before that election day. Still, Davies solidly defeated her Democrat opponent, Chris Duncan of San Clemente, with nearly 53% of the vote.
It’s a rematch again this year for Davies and Duncan — but this time voter registration shows a boost for Republicans ahead of Election Day. As of the latest data from the secretary of state’s office, Republicans account for 35.12% of registered voters, Democrats 35.07% and no party preference 21.6%.
It’s only a narrow edge, but it’s an accomplishment for Republicans, said Jennifer Millan Patterson, chairwoman of the California Republican Party. That also means it’s a seat that made the CAGOP’s “protect” list this election cycle.
But Democrats think this could be a pickup for them, particularly pointing to reproductive health care as a driving factor for voters this election cycle.
“This is an important race for us because Laurie Davies is out of touch,” said Orange County Democratic Party Chair Ada Briceño. “I’ve watched Chris be a strong supporter of women’s rights and leading the way of defeating the anti-abortion ordinance in San Clemente.”
The San Clemente City Council, of which Duncan is a member, rejected in August 2022 a proposal that would have declared the city a “sanctuary for life” and could have enforced a ban on abortion procedures within the city limits, according to the councilmember who authored the resolution.
The council’s decision came ahead of the 2022 election, where Davies beat Duncan to win re-election. Voters also that year solidly backed Proposition 1, enshrining protections for abortion in the state constitution. Nearly 58% of voters in the 74th district voted in favor of the constitutional amendment while 42% opposed it.
The other legislative race garnering attention is the lone state Senate contest for the county where incumbent Sen. Josh Newman, D-Fullerton, faces Republican Steven Choi.
A former Irvine Unified School Board member, Choi served in the Assembly for six years before redistricting pitted him against another incumbent member — and he lost. After making it through the primary in March, Choi said he wanted to return to the legislature, in the upper chamber, to counter the Democratic supermajority in Sacramento.
Newman first won his seat in 2016 but was recalled in 2018 after he voted to raise the gas tax to help pay for transportation projects. But he retook the seat — which includes parts of Irvine, Aliso Viejo, Costa Mesa, Orange, Fullerton and Laguna Niguel now — in 2020.
Democrats have the voter registration edge in the district, accounting for 36.6% of the nearly 600,000 registered voters compared to 33.5% Republicans and 23.8% no party preference.
Democrats are targeting voters through door-knocking, text messages and phone calls, Briceño said, and talking about Newman’s record in the legislature on climate and education issues as well as his military background.
“Josh Newman is someone who is a known Democratic elected official who has very strong values,” she said. “We’re confident that this newly redrawn district will go to Josh Newman.”
But Republicans are focused on how the boundary lines are relatively new for Newman. Most of the district is represented by outgoing Sen. Dave Min, a Democrat who is running for Congress instead of re-election.
“We saw that the district is actually very ripe for Republican representation,” said Patterson, the GOP chairwoman, noting that redistricting put more Democratic voters into a different Senate seat. “This, along with every single Senate, Assembly and congressional district, has improved on registration” this cycle.
While Assemblymembers are elected to two-year terms, senators’ terms are for four.
A snapshot of the other legislative races on the ballot in Orange County this year
• Assembly District 59 includes a portion of San Bernardino County as well as Orange County, including Brea, Placentia, Villa Park and Yorba Linda. Assemblymember Phillip Chen, R-Yorba Linda, faces Dave Obrand, a Democrat deputy county counsel in the race.
• Covering a portion of Los Angeles and Orange counties, including La Habra, is Assembly District 64. There, Assemblymember Blanca Pacheco, D-Downey, faces Republican Raul Ortiz Jr., a pest control manager from La Mirada, in the election.
• Assembly District 67 includes Los Angeles and Orange counties, including Buena Park, Cypress, Fullerton and La Palma. Assemblymember Sharon Quirk-Silva, D-Fullerton, and Republican Beth Culver, a retired entrepreneur from Cypress, headline this race.
• In Assembly District 68, which only covers Orange County — including the cities of Anaheim, Orange and Santa Ana — Assemblymember Avelino Valencia, D-Anaheim; and Mike Tardif, a retired businessman from Santa Ana, will face off in the election.
• Assembly District 70 is an Orange County-only district as well, covering communities in Fountain Valley, Garden Grove, Los Alamitos and Westminster. There, it’s a contest between two Westminster candidates: Republican Assemblymember Tri Ta and attorney Jimmy Pham, a Democrat.
• Assembly District 71 includes Riverside and Orange counties, including Ladera Ranch, Mission Viejo and Rancho Santa Margarita. Assemblymember Kate Sanchez, R-Rancho Santa Margarita, faces Democrat Gary Kephart, a software engineer from Ladera Ranch, in the race.
• Assembly District 72 includes Aliso Viejo, Huntington Beach, Laguna Beach, Lake Forest and Newport Beach. There, Assemblymember Diane Dixon, R-Newport Beach, faces Democrat Dom Jones, a businesswoman from Huntington Beach.
• Orange County’s Assembly District 73 includes Costa Mesa, Irvine and Tustin. Assemblymember Cottie Petrie-Norris, D-Irvine, faces Republican Scotty Peotter, a Republican and architect who lives in Irvine.
