Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to become Tropical Storm Francine today and get stronger as it heads toward the northern Gulf Coast.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting the storm to strengthen quickly and become a hurricane by Wednesday, when it will be approaching landfall, likely in Louisiana.
Forecasters warned that the threats for life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds will be increasing for those along the Louisiana and Texas coasts by midweek.
The hurricane center’s track forecast has shifted slightly eastward overnight but still has the center of the storm moving onshore Wednesday on the Louisiana coast.
There were no watches or warnings in effect for that area, yet, but those will be coming later today.
The storm was in the western Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning and was close enough to southern Texas and Mexico that tropical storm watches were in effect there.
As of 7 a.m. CDT Monday, the estimated center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six was located about 545 miles south of Cameron, La., and was on a path to the north-northwest at 5 mph.
The disturbance had sustained winds of 50 mph, which is more than enough for it to be considered a tropical storm. However, it was still not quite organized enough to get that title, according to forecasters.
But that is expected to change today, and it will be give the name Francine, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic storm list.
The hurricane center said “significant intensification” is expected to begin on Tuesday, and the storm is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the Gulf Coast on Wednesday.
A tropical storm watch remained in effect for the Gulf Coast of Mexico from Barra del Tordo to the mouth of the Rio Grande and along the southern Texas coast from the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield.
The hurricane center said that hurricane, storm surge, and tropical storm watches will likely be issued for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast later today.
The storm is expected to bring an increasing risk for rip currents, rough surf and the potential for heavy rain to areas along the Alabama coast starting on Tuesday and especially on Wednesday and Thursday, according to the National Weather Service in Mobile.
The storm is expected to move slowly today and then pick up some speed starting late Tuesday. On the hurricane center’s forecast track, the storm will track just offshore of the Mexican coast through tomorrow and the approach Louisiana and the Upper Texas coasts on Wednesday.
The storm could bring 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated amounts up to 12 inches, to coastal areas in northeast Mexico, along the south Texas coast, and across southern Louisiana and Mississippi through Thursday morning. Flash flooding will be possible in those areas.
Storm surge flooding will be possible along the northern Gulf Coast where the storm makes landfall, and large and dangerous waves will be possible along the coast.
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC
In addition to the Gulf storm there are two other tropical disturbances that are being tracked on Monday.NHC
The hurricane center was also tracking two other tropical waves, both of which could become tropical depressions this week. They were in the central and eastern Atlantic as of Monday.
The first wave had a 60 percent probability of becoming a depression in the next seven days. It’s expected to meander for a few days and then begin to track to the west-northwest.
The second disturbance was father to the east on Monday, and it also had a 60 percent probability of becoming a depression this week. It is also expected to track to the west-northwest.
Both of those disturbances are not expected to affect any land areas for the majority of this week but could eventually be something for those in the Lesser Antilles to keep an eye on.
Sept 10 marks the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. To date there have been five named storms, including three hurricanes and one major hurricane.
NOAA’s hurricane outlook suggests 17 to 24 named storms will be possible before the end of the season on Nov. 30.
Forecasters still think this hurricane season will be very active. Here is the August forecast update.NHC
