The National Hurricane Center is continuing to forecast the development of a tropical disturbance that could move into the Gulf of Mexico next week and become a tropical depression.
The disturbance hasn’t formed yet, however.
The hurricane center expects that to happen early next week, and it could drift northward from the western Caribbean and into the southern Gulf.
Forecasters think it will find an environment in the Gulf that will allow it to organize, and it could become a tropical depression late next week.
Anytime there’s a tropical disturbance in the Gulf during the peak of hurricane season it’s cause for concern.
But forecasters cautioned that it’s simply too soon to know what the not-yet-formed disturbance could do.
And it’s also too soon to know where it could go.
However, even with that being said, the National Weather Service in Mobile cautioned residents and visitors along the Alabama Gulf Coast to keep a very close eye on the forecast over the upcoming week.
It’s also a good time to double-check your hurricane plan and supplies, just in case.
Here’s a timeframe for getting more clear on the forecast track for a potential Gulf of Mexico storm, courtesy of the National Weather Service in New Orleans.NWS
If the system organizes and gets a name, it will likely be Helene, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic storm list.
The National Weather Service in Mobile was watching forecast trends on Saturday, and forecasters said it will still be a few days before the system develops enough to have a “trackable feature that will help us narrow down the wide range of possibilities.”
The weather service expects an area of low pressure to develop in the western Caribbean, possibly in the time period around Tuesday. It will cross over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and into the southern Gulf, or Bay of Campeche.
From there it could have a favorable environment (warm water, low wind shear) to organize and strengthen. Forecasters added that models suggest whatever forms could be on the larger side, which has the potential to spread effects from wind and rain farther from its center.
Then there are the many uncertainties — the biggest factor being that the disturbance hasn’t even formed yet.
“Once the system actually forms and models are able to latch onto a trackable feature, we should start to see guidance (forecast models) begin to converge on a most probable solution,” the weather service said in its Saturday morning forecast discussion.
There are also a lot of questions about the so-called steering features that could affect the system’s eventual path. There will be a ridge of high pressure over parts of the South. A trough of low pressure is expected to push into the Great Lakes region, and an area of low pressure will be cut off from that trough and linger over the south-central U.S.
All of those things could eventually influence where the tropical disturbance goes. The strength and positioning on those features will become more clear next week.
The weather service added a note of caution:
“It is important not to focus on the precise location of the center as impacts will likely be felt far removed from the center of the system,” forecasters said Saturday. “We will continue to monitor trends closely and we urge residents and visitors across the entire Gulf Coast to continue to monitor the forecast over the coming days.”
ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
The National Hurricane Center was also watching three other areas for potential development on Saturday.
All three were in the central and eastern Atlantic and far from the U.S., and all three had low chances of becoming tropical depressions in the next week.
The Atlantic hurricane season typically peaks in activity around Sept. 10, but it won’t officially end until Nov. 30.
The Atlantic hurricane season has its climatological peak on Sept. 10.
