Draft picks in the NHL are like lottery tickets, the cliche goes. The more you have the better your chances are to hit big.
In reality, it’s not that simple.
This series looks at how teams have performed in the draft and how those picks are shaping the NHL today. This isn’t meant to be a deep evaluation of how teams build their rosters. Instead, it is a look at which teams have shown to be the best at identifying players in the draft who have grown into full-time NHLers.
The first part of the series will focus on drafted skaters who have played at least 200 games, equal to roughly three seasons. We will then narrow things down to look at early-round success and which teams have been the best at finding late-round hidden gems. The series will then close with a look at the unique challenge of drafting goalies.
Some notes on the data
The raw numbers referenced in this series were sourced from HockeyDB. NHL.com, Hockey Reference.com and PuckPedia.com were other resources used.
The sample covers 10 drafts from 2010-2019, or players roughly aged 22-32. More recent drafts were omitted to account for prospect development time and to avoid the variance that naturally came after the COVID-19 pandemic.
In total, 1,905 skaters were drafted in this time, but just 418 appeared in 200 games.
The Golden Knights and the Kraken were not included in this project as they joined the league too late to fit into the sample. The Golden Knights drafted 24 skaters from 2017-19 and just four have reached 200 games so far.
Tier 1: Above 30%
1. Columbus Blue Jackets
Skaters drafted: 56 | Percentage who played 200 games: 32.14% (18 players)
Notable hits: Ryan Johansen, Boone Jenner, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Zach Werenski, Pierre-Luc Dubois
The Blue Jackets tied for the third-fewest skaters drafted at 56 but have been consistently incorporating those players into the roster, possibly because recruiting in free agency has been a challenge. Those picks have been effective depth players but scoring has been an issue. Ryan Johansen, selected fourth-overall in 2010, is the only Blue Jackets draft pick from the sample to crack 200 goals.
2. Anaheim Ducks
Skaters drafted: 59 | Percentage who played 200 games: 30.51% (18 players)
Notable hits: Cam Fowler, Rikard Rakell, Hampus Lindholm, Shea Theodore, Josh Manson, Brandon Montour, Troy Terry, Trevor Zegras
The Ducks are one of only two teams to have a skater reach 200 games from all 10 drafts analyzed, and they did that while making the playoffs six years in a row including two trips to the Western Conference Final. The Ducks have a reputation for developing defence but of their 18 players to reach 200 games, 12 are forwards which ranks fourth league-wide.
Tier 2: Above 25%
3. Edmonton Oilers
Skaters drafted: 66 | Percentage who played 200 games: 28.79% (19 players)
Notable hits: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard
The Oilers really hit rock bottom during this decade but frequent lottery wins produced a ton of talent. Hall, Draisaitl and McDavid have combined to win four of the last seven Hart Trophies but even players who are considered misses, such as Nail Yakupov and Jesse Puljujarvi, managed to stay in the league long enough to reach 200 games. Picking so early, so often, helps.
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4. St. Louis Blues
Skaters drafted: 59 | Percentage who played 200 games: 27.12% (16 players)
Notable hits: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko, Colton Parayko, Ivan Barbashev, Vince Dunn, Tage Thompson, Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas
The Blues have managed to salvage some drafts with late-round gems when higher picks didn’t pan out. Out of the 10 drafts analyzed, the first skater the Blues selected failed to reach 200 games five times but another player did in three of those cases.
5. Pittsburgh Penguins
Skaters drafted: 52 | Percentage who played 200 games: 26.92% (14 players)
Notable hits: Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel, Olli Maatta, Oskar Sundqvist, Kasperi Kapanen
The Penguins made the second-fewest draft picks of any team during this 10-year sample. Since the 2016 class, none of the players they selected have reached the 200-game mark.
6. Carolina Hurricanes
Skaters drafted: 67 | Percentage who played 200 games: 26.87% (18 players)
Notable hits: Jeff Skinner, Jaccob Slavin, Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov
The Hurricanes reached the playoffs just once in the 12 years that followed their only Stanley Cup win in 2006. That drought ended in 2019 and Carolina has now reached the post-season six years in a row thanks to a foundation provided by Aho (second round), Slavin (fourth round) and moving up nine slots in the lottery to take Svechnikov.
7. Calgary Flames
Skaters drafted: 56 | Percentage who played 200 games: 26.79% (15 players)
Notable hits: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett, Rasmus Andersson, Matthew Tkachuk, Adam Fox
The Flames are tied for the third-fewest skaters selected during this sample. The high point came with the arrival of Johnny Gaudreau, a 2011 fourth-round pick who ushered in a new era for the Flames after Jarome Iginla was traded.
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8. Boston Bruins
Skaters drafted: 58 | Percentage who played 200 games: 25.86% (15 players)
Notable hits: Tyler Seguin, Dougie Hamilton, David Pastrnak, Jake DeBrusk, Brandon Carlo, Charlie McAvoy
The Bruins’ track record at the draft during this period is similar to the Flames but the transition between generations went smoother in Boston. David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy fit right in alongside Zdeno Chara and Patrice Bergeron. The question now is, with Chara and Bergeron retired, how much longer can it last?
9. Buffalo Sabres
Skaters drafted: 71 | Percentage who played 200 games: 25.35% (18 players)
Notable hits: Zemgus Girgenson, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Zadorov, JT Compher, Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens
The Sabres are tied for the third-most skaters drafted during this period thanks to multiple failed rebuilds that keep extending their 13-year playoff drought. Dahlin and Cozens lead the core now but trading Eichel and Reinhart only to see them lift the Stanley Cup shortly after will leave a lot of fans asking “why not us?”
Tier 3: Above 20%
10. Florida Panthers
Skaters drafted: 71 | Percentage who played 200 games: 23.94% (17 players)
Notable hits: Zach Hyman, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, MacKenzie Weegar, Aaron Ekblad, Owen Tippett
After years in the depths of the standings and making a ton of picks, the Panthers are now champions thanks to a core built around Barkov and Ekblad. Huberdeau once held multiple franchise records and Weegar is the ultimate seventh-round success story but Hyman will forever be the one that got away.
11. Dallas Stars
Skaters drafted: 60 | Percentage who played 200 games: 23.33% (14 players)
Notable hits: John Klingberg, Jamie Oleksiak, Radek Faksa, Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson
The Stars had some big whiffs in 2014, ‘16 and ‘18 but the 2017 draft that produced Heiskanen, Robertson and goalie Jake Oettinger gave them cornerstones at all three positions to make up for those other poor showings.
12. Minnesota Wild
Skaters drafted: 60 | Percentage who played 200 games: 23.33% (14 players)
Notable hits: Jason Zucker, Jonas Brodin, Matt Dumba, Alex Tuch, Joel Eriksson Ek, Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy
Like the Stars, the Wild had some misses at the draft during the decade but landing Eriksson Ek and Kaprizov (in the fifth round) in 2015 has helped them stay relevant in the Central Division. Brodin on the blueline has been as steady as any player, too.
13. Tampa Bay Lightning
Skaters drafted: 66 | Percentage who played 200 games: 22.73% (15 players)
Notable hits: Radko Gudas, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli
Over eight seasons from 2015-2022, the Lightning reached the Stanley Cup Final four times and won twice. Hitting on Kucherov, Palat, Point and Cirelli outside of the first round contributed to that success, but so did deciding to keep them when making trades to flesh out the roster.
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14. Chicago Blackhawks
Skaters drafted: 76 | Percentage who played 200 games: 22.37% (17 players)
Notable hits: Kevin Hayes, Phillip Danault, Brandon Saad, Teuvo Teravainen, Nick Schmaltz, Alex DeBrincat
Many of the draft picks who were members of the team’s three Stanley Cup wins were selected before 2010 but Saad and Andrew Shaw did contribute to two championship teams. No team made more selections than the Blackhawks during this decade but from 2014 to ‘19 they only produced five full-time players in six drafts, a dry spell that led to their current rebuild.
15. New Jersey Devils
Skaters drafted: 63 | Percentage who played 200 games: 22.22% (14 players)
Notable hits: Adam Larsson, Blake Coleman, Pavel Zacha, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes
This decade was a rollercoaster for the Devils, with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final and two first-overall draft picks. Hischier and Hughes have been everything the Devils could ask for but Bratt, a three-time 70-point player, is an incredible find from the 2016 sixth-round.
16. Montreal Canadiens
Skaters drafted: 68 | Percentage who played 200 games: 22.06% (15 players)
Notable hits: Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk, Artturi Lehkonen, Mikhail Sergachev, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Cole Caufield
The Canadiens had some wins during the decade including Gallagher in the fifth round and Caufield 15th overall in 2019. Sergachev and Kotkaniemi were good picks, too, but mismanaging them as assets was a factor in Marc Bergevin losing his job and the new management group pulling things back to the foundation.
17. Los Angeles Kings
Skaters drafted: 60 | Percentage who played 200 games: 21.67% (13 players)
Notable hits: Tyler Toffoli, Tanner Pearson, Adrian Kempe, Erik Cernak, Mikey Anderson
Toffoli and Pearson contributed to the 2014 Stanley Cup win and Kempe and Anderson are key pieces on the current roster, but the Kings have been forced to turn to free agency and trades to plug a lot of holes when draft picks didn’t pan out.
18. Washington Capitals
Skaters drafted: 51 | Percentage who played 200 games: 21.57% (11 players)
Notable hits: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Filip Forsberg, Tom Wilson, Chandler Stephenson, Andre Burakovsky, Jakub Vrana
Everything peaked for the Capitals with a Stanley Cup win in 2018 and they are just now starting to transition the roster to younger players around Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson. Since 2016 Martin Fehervary (second round, 2018) is the only Capitals draft pick to appear in more than 200 games.
19. Toronto Maple Leafs
Skaters drafted: 70 | Percentage who played 200 games: 21.43% (15 players)
Notable hits: Morgan Rielly, Carter Verhaeghe, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, Rasmus Sandin
The Maple Leafs were another team that cleared the deck and had a bunch of high draft picks during this decade. Toronto was one of only five teams to draft 70 skaters during this window and with that new core, they have made eight straight playoff appearances, their longest streak since the late 1970s.
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20. Ottawa Senators
Skaters drafted: 57 | Percentage who played 200 games: 21.05% (12 players)
Notable hits: Mark Stone, Mika Zibanejad, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Cody Ceci, Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk
Mika Zibanejad is a superstar the Senators certainly regret trading but landing Mark Stone in the sixth round is the club’s biggest success story from the draft. More recently, current captain Brady Tkachuk is leading a rebuild that is still trying to break through.
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21. Arizona Coyotes/Utah Hockey Club
Skaters drafted: 69 | Percentage who played 200 games: 20.29% (14 players)
Notable hits: Max Domi, Christian Fischer, Dylan Strome, Conor Garland, Clayton Keller, Jakub Chychrun
The Coyotes made the playoffs once since reaching the Western Conference Final in 2012 but despite all that losing only had two top-five picks this decade. Those picks, Dylan Strome and Barrett Hayton, have stuck around in the league long enough to reach 200 games but selecting them ahead of Mitch Marner and Quinn Hughes was in hindsight a miss.
22. Philadelphia Flyers
Skaters drafted: 65 | Percentage who played 200 games: 20.00% (13 players)
Notable hits: Sean Couturier, Scott Laughton, Shayne Gostisbehere, Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny
Couturier is a Selke winner and the current captain of the Flyers while Konecny is a two-time 30-goal scorer. Those two remain the leaders but the roster is being significantly reset around them during a four-year playoff drought.
Tier 4: Above 15%
23. San Jose Sharks
Skaters drafted: 61 | Percentage who played 200 games: 19.67% (12 players)
Notable hits: Charlie Coyle, Dylan DeMelo, Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier, Mario Ferraro
The Sharks were a consistent playoff threat for most of the decade, reaching the Final in 2016. As a result, many of their best draft picks were included in trades for players like Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson. The Sharks are now picking up the pieces from those years of success and trading Hertl and Meier in their primes is a sign that this will be a long rebuild.
24. Detroit Red Wings
Skaters drafted: 73 | Percentage who played 200 games: 17.81% (13 players)
Notable hits: Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin, Filip Hronek, Michael Rasmussen, Moritz Seider
Detroit made a ton of picks during this period, second most behind Chicago, but most of their success stories came early in the decade. In the six drafts between 2014 and ’19 only six players have reached the 200-game mark. Captain Larkin and Calder Trophy winner Seider are two of those players, but so is Filip Zadina, who was taken one pick ahead of Quinn Hughes in 2018 and now playing in Switzerland.
25. Nashville Predators
Skaters drafted: 62 | Percentage who played 200 games: 17.74% (11 players)
Notable hits: Seth Jones, Kevin Fiala, Viktor Arvidsson, Dante Fabbro, Sam Girard
The Predators reached the Stanley Cup Final in 2017 and have made the playoffs in nine of the past 10 seasons. This is despite needing to be aggressive in trades and free agency to make up for limited success in the draft.
26. Winnipeg Jets/Atlanta Thrashers
Skaters drafted: 63 | Percentage who played 200 games: 17.46% (11 players)
Notable hits: Mark Scheifele, Adam Lowry, Jacob Trouba, Andrew Copp, Josh Morrissey, Nikolaj Ehlers, Patrik Laine
The Jets moved to Winnipeg in 2011 and with their first two picks selected a No. 1 centre in Scheifele and a future captain in Lowry. The Jets have had near identical success in the draft as the Predators but Winnipeg’s drafted skaters have combined to play 718 more games than Nashville’s.
27. New York Islanders
Skaters drafted: 60 | Percentage who played 200 games: 16.67% (10 players)
Notable hits: Nino Niederreiter, Brock Nelson, Ryan Pulock, Devon Toews, Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson
Barzal stepped up to fill the void left by John Tavares joining the Maple Leafs and Dobson is looking like a cornerstone blueliner. But when your draft record is this poor, trading a fourth-round success story like Devon Toews for second-round picks is not the best asset management.
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28. Vancouver Canucks
Skaters drafted: 62 | Percentage who played 200 games: 16.13% (10 players)
Notable hits: Bo Horvat, Jared McCann, Gustav Forsling, Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, Nils Hoglander
The Canucks didn’t have much on-ice success in the aftermath of a run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2011. But the core of Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes and Brock Boeser that came out of that dark time appears to be ready to lead the Canucks to long-awaited glory.
29. New York Rangers
Skaters drafted: 60 | Percentage who played 200 games: 15.00% (9 players)
Notable hits: JT Miller, Pavel Buchnevich, Anthony Duclair, Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko
The Rangers were all in for most of the decade, reaching the Eastern Conference Final twice and Stanley Cup Final once. As a result, from 2013-16 they did not make a pick in the first round and needed to bottom out at the end of the decade to restock the cupboard.
30. Colorado Avalanche
Skaters drafted: 60 | Percentage who played 200 games: 11.67% (7 players)
Notable hits: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar
The decade was pretty lean for the Avalanche, making the playoffs just once from 2011-17 and not having much success in the draft. But nabbing future Hall of Famers MacKinnon and Makar, plus another elite scorer in Rantanen, was enough to deliver a Stanley Cup in 2022.
