The research division of BBVA bank calculates a potential 60% loss of summer tourism in the Balearics by the end of the century because of extreme temperatures caused by climate change.
The BBVA report, which arrives at similar conclusions to other previously published research, estimates that there will be an annual 27% net decrease in tourist demand. Spring and autumn will compensate, with spring becoming the preferred season.
As well as seasonal change, the geographical pattern of tourism will alter. The northern coastal areas of Spain will benefit from increased summer tourism, while the south and the Balearics will experience far lower demand.
The bank notes that this shift will help relieve pressure in the summer but stresses the need to mitigate adverse effects. Spain’s tourism industry must adapt by promoting currently off-season travel, developing sustainable infrastructure and diversifying tourist attractions beyond just beach tourism in order to ensure the industry’s long-term resilience.
As ever with this type of report there will be those who take it seriously and those who dismiss it.
Meteorologist Agustí Jansà, a one-time delegate in the Balearics for the state met agency Aemet, most certainly takes it seriously. “Our region is warming faster than the rest of the planet.” And as the summer gets hotter, so there are more heat waves and of longer duration as well as storms that are more violent than previously.
Damià Gomis, professor of earth physics at the University of the Balearic Islands, says: “In the autumn, water temperatures are higher than we used to have because there is more heat. The direct impact is that autumn storms can be stronger because they take moisture from the sea and release it into the atmosphere. It doesn’t mean that there are more storms, but that they are more virulent.”
He adds that such intense rainfall is not necessarily beneficial for water reserves. “It is not filtered well. There may be more drought.”
Pau De Vílchez, also from the university in Palma and president of the Balearic committee for climate change and energy transition, points to there having been 50,000 heat-related deaths in Europe last year.
“But as a society we are still not aware of the threat global warming poses to us.” Meanwhile, there is a political party, Vox, which denies the acceleration of global warming due to the human factor, “despite 50 years of scientific research”. “Ignorance is bliss.”
In the short term, what do more extreme summer temperatures mean for tourism? Perhaps they will do the job for policy makers who speak about distributing tourist arrivals to other times of the year and thus easing the saturation of summer. Evidence right now, given increasing tourist numbers, doesn’t support this. In years to come maybe it will.
