To say this WNBA season has been transformative would be an understatement.
From record books being re-written by the day from the likes of A’ja Wilson, Angel Reese and Caitlin Clark, to record numbers of fans on social media, on TV and at games, 2024 will henceforth be marked as the year that everything changed for the league.
And that was only the regular season. Now comes the real fun part.
As always, the playoffs always offer some mouth-watering storylines and serious potential for fireworks. Here’s the tale of the tape for each first-round matchup, and a key storyline to keep an eye on as these best-of-threes get started Sunday.
(1) New York Liberty vs. (8) Atlanta Dream
Regular season series: Liberty won 3-1
Series schedule:
Game 1: Atlanta @ New York, Sunday, Sept. 22 (1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT)
Game 2: Atlanta @ New York, Tuesday, Sept. 24 (7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT)
Game 3: New York @ Atlanta, Thursday, Sept. 26 (TBD)
Storyline to watch: Wake up, the Liberty’s revenge tour starts now.
While all the attention has been on the Indiana Fever, Chicago Sky and Las Vegas Aces this season, the New York Liberty have quietly put together a season for the ages. Their 32-8 record is only two wins back from the record-setting 2023 Las Vegas Aces (34-6) while reigning MVP Breanna Stewart, though not playing at the same levels this year, is still second behind Wilson in stats like PER and total win shares.
They enter the post-season as the No. 1 offence in the league (109.6 offensive rating) and No. 3 defence (97.9 defensive rating), they shoot the most three-pointers at 29.0 per game (while hitting 34.9 per cent of them) but also have the best two-point efficiency in the league, hitting 52.0 per cent of their shots from inside the arc.
Be it a death by a thousand cuts or a single explosive run from deep, the Liberty have proven that they can win in all sorts of ways, and that’s not even mentioning their ridiculous inside defence courtesy of Stewart and Jonquel Jones.
The Atlanta Dream squeaked into the playoffs, finally securing their spot on the final day. Give Rhyne Howard her flowers, and Tina Charles remains timeless, but the Dream are running into a buzzsaw. One that should have a chip on its shoulder after a loss in the WNBA Finals last year and a regular season that went way too under the radar.
Series Prediction: Liberty win in two.
(2) Minnesota Lynx vs. (7) Phoenix Mercury
Regular season series: Lynx won 3-0
Series schedule:
Game 1: Phoenix @ Minnesota, Sunday, Sept. 22 (5 p.m. ET / 2 p.m. PT)
Game 2: Phoenix @ Minnesota, Wednesday, Sept. 25 (9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT)
Game 3: Minnesota @ Phoenix, Friday, Sept. 27 (TBD)
Storyline to watch: Does Diana Taurasi’s career end here?
For now, the GOAT debate in women’s basketball starts and ends with Diana Taurasi. Things might change 20 years from now once we get through the promising careers of Wilson, Stewart or even Clark if you want to get ahead of yourself. But today, yesterday, and for many tomorrows to come, Taurasi stands alone.
Six Olympic gold medals, three rings, two Finals MVPs, one MVP, 11 all-star selections, 10 All-WNBA First Team selections, five-time scoring champ and the all-time leading scorer. That’s not even counting her accomplishments in college at UConn and overseas.
The Phoenix Mercury came into the season looking promising, signing Natasha Cloud and all-star Kahleah Copper in the off-season to flank Taurasi on the wings and funnel people into defensive superstar Brittney Griner down the middle. But inconsistency, a 10th-place defensive rating (107.8) and the second-worst rebounding in the league (32.3 per game) haven’t done them any favours.
Opposite them will be the surprise of the season in the Minnesota Lynx, who are once again looking like the powerhouse they were during the 2010s. But this team is a complete reinvention, relying on shooting from the likes of Kayla McBride and Canadian Bridget Carleton, while superstar Napheesa Collier carves up defences from the mid-range.
If this is the last we see of Taurasi, you better believe she’ll go down swinging.
Series prediction: Lynx win in three.
(3) Connecticut Sun vs. (6) Indiana Fever
Regular season series: Sun won 3-1
Series schedule:
Game 1: Indiana @ Connecticut, Sunday, Sept. 22 (3 p.m. ET / Noon PT)
Game 2: Indiana @ Connecticut, Wednesday, Sept. 25 (7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT)
Game 3: Connecticut @ Indiana, Friday, Sept. 27 (TBD)
Storyline to watch: Can Caitlin Clark solve Connecticut in her playoff debut?
No player has captured the eyes of fans as much as Caitlin Clark has this season. Hate or love her all you want, her impact on the league and the game as a whole has been undeniable in her first professional season.
Her rookie year saw her average 19.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game while shooting 41.7 per cent from the field and 34.4 per cent from three-point range. Countless records lay broken in her path, including the single-season assists and rookie points records.
But more importantly, perhaps is the fact that she turned a bottom-feeding Fever team into a seriously plucky playoff contender. After starting the season 1-8, Clark has orchestrated the Fever offence to perfection, carrying them to a 20-20 record and their first playoff berth since 2016.
But her biggest test stands before her.
The Connecticut Sun have been her kryptonite this season, holding her to a poor 16.5 points, 2.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game, with the latter being her lowest mark against any team in the WNBA. However, those numbers might be deceptive, as three of those games against the Sun came in the Fever’s first 13 outings of the regular season when Clark hadn’t yet found her sea legs at the next level.
That’s what the best defence in the WNBA can do to opponents. The Sun carry the best defensive rating in the league (96.4) led by the formidable pairing of Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, who finished third and fifth in defensive win shares at 3.4 and 3.1 respectively. Add to that DiJonai Carrington — who is expected to handle Clark duties — and you’ve got a team built to take on the offence-first Fever.
The Sun have five players who have notched at least 40 steals this season, and Clark has never been shy of committing turnovers. If Connecticut can get her in trouble again, the rookie phenom might have her spectacular season cut short.
Series prediction: Sun win in three.
(4) Las Vegas Aces vs. (5) Seattle Storm
Regular season series: Aces won 3-1
Series schedule:
Game 1: Seattle @ Las Vegas, Sunday, Sept. 22 (10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT)
Game 2: Seattle @ Las Vegas, Tuesday, Sept. 24 (9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT)
Game 3: Las Vegas @ Seattle, Thursday, Sept. 26 (TBD)
Storyline to watch: Do the Aces have enough left in the tank for a three-peat?
When you go deep in the playoffs (and win) this often, it can tire a team out. Past just their back-to-back titles, the Aces have made at least the semifinals the past five years. In total, that’s an extra 38 games. Add onto that an Olympic Games that saw Team USA select four of the Aces superstars and the amount of extra mileage this dynastic force has tacked on is undeniably substantial.
They’ve been sloppy at times this season but still pulled out a 27-13 record, good for second in the West. However, most of that can be attributed to the singularly dominant force that is Wilson.
The 27-year-old is putting together, arguably, the greatest season of WNBA basketball ever seen, no hyperbole. Her 34.94 PER is second all-time behind only Lauren Jackson’s 2007 MVP campaign, her 10.86 win shares are the most all time, and she’s the founding member of the 1,000 points club. She led the league in offensive and defensive win shares, and though she had the highest usage percentage, she also had the lowest turnover percentage by a wide margin.
But the rest of the team, compared to their 2023-selves, have all taken a step back. “Point Gawd” Chelsea Gray has dealt with injuries and is averaging only 8.6 points per game while Jackie Young’s 44.9 per cent three-point shot from last season is way down to 33.7 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Storm have run rampant as new faces Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith came in as high-level contributors from the jump. Though Jewell Loyd has struggled from the field, shooting a career-low 36.0 per cent, her two newest teammates have propped her up while Ezi Magbegor has taken care of the paint with 82 blocks, joining Wilson as the only other player in the WNBA with at least 80.
A date with destiny awaits the Aces, but if the wear-and-tear has finally caught up to them, the quick and defensively adept Storm could certainly give them a run for their money.
Series prediction: Aces in two.
