So, you’re the Dallas Stars and you’ve been taking the steps of building up a playoff roster. Two years ago your youngest players learned lessons in a first-round Game 7 exit. Last season you tasted success, but came two wins shy in Round 3 against a team slightly ahead of you. This season you finished at the top of the Western Conference, a whisker from the Presidents’ Trophy and your reward? A first round date with the defending champions who knocked you out a year ago.
And it doesn’t get any easier after beating them in a seven-game thriller. Up next are the champions from two years ago, the Colorado Avalanche.
Welcome to the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the stacked Western Conference.
Old rivals from the end of the pre-cap, dead puck era, both Dallas and Colorado have the highest of expectations this season and, by the time this series is over, at least one of these teams will have been present in four of the past five West Finals. But while the Avs are chasing another Cup, the Stars are just now icing the best version of themselves.
Here’s a look at the last two teams standing from the Central Division.
Head-to-head record regular season:
Stars: 1-2-1
Avalanche: 3-1-0
How Dallas got here: Dallas were Stanley Cup finalists just four years ago, but while seven players from that team remain there are far more differences than similarities between the two rosters and the way they go about business. The 2020 Stars were a bottom six offence and second in goals-against per game, defensively strong under Jim Montgomery and then Rick Bowness behind the bench. This year’s version finished as a top three offence under Peter DeBoer, in his second season with the team after reaching the conference final in his first.
The Stars finished atop the Western Conference this regular season thanks to a great track record at the draft table. Six players drafted between 2017 and 2021 who weren’t on that Cup Final team are leading contributors now, including No. 1 goalie Jake Oettinger (26th overall in 2017), leading scorer Jason Robertson (39th overall in 2017), and leading blue line goal scorer Thomas Harley (18th overall in 2019). It was also a big year for Dallas’ 2021 draft, with Logan Stankoven (47th overall) coming up for good in February, and Wyatt Johnston (23rd overall) breaking out as the team’s leading goal scorer with 32 in his second season.
A well-executed rebuild on the fly led to Dallas’ first regular season division title since 2016 and a first round series against the defending Stanley Cup champions who they then fell behind 2-0 in the series to. But between Oettinger’s .925 save percentage, Johnston’s rising star, and Chris Tanev‘s stellar job shutting down Vegas’ top lines in his minutes, Dallas showed why they’re in the top tier of contenders and came all the way back.
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How Colorado got here: The Avalanche won the Stanley Cup just two years ago, but after topping the Central Division in the regular season again in 2023 they were upset by Seattle in the first round of the playoffs. We know the star power is present on this roster, too, led by Nathan MacKinnon off a 140-point season and Cale Makar with a career-high 90 points.
The question for Colorado is in net, where Alexandar Georgiev finished with a sub-.900 save percentage this season and then lost Game 1 against Winnipeg 7-6 when he only faced 23 shots. But from Games 2-5 Georgiev allowed eight goals and stopped 94 per cent of all the shots he faced. Numbers like those could deliver the Avs another title, if they can be sustained.
Colorado is both the highest-scoring team from the first round, averaging 5.60 goals per game — an unfathomable amount against Connor Hellebuyck — and the team with the highest goals-against per game rate left standing (3.00).
PLAYOFF TEAM STATS
ADVANCED STATS
Regular season 5-on-5 numbers via Natural Stat Trick
Stars X-Factor: Roope Hintz
A 30-goal scorer for a third year in a row, and the team’s leading playoff scorer in last year’s run to the West Final, Hintz was nearly shut out against Vegas, scoring a single goal in seven games and finishing a minus-4. That the Stars got revenge on last year’s Cup champs without Hintz producing to his usual levels may bode well for when he does get going.
Avalanche X-Factor: Casey Mittelstadt
Colorado gave a good shake to its lineup at the trade deadline with a primary objective of boosting its second line with a new centre. In came Casey Mittelstadt, at the cost of Bowen Byram, and he made a clear difference against the Jets.
With Mittelstadt on the ice at 5-on-5, Colorado outscored Winnipeg 6-3 and outshot them 47-34. He led the Avs with three primary assists at even strength and is providing the sort of second line support the team has missed since Nazem Kadri departed. Colorado’s top-line stars are a nightly handful who will get theirs, so Mittelstadt’s continued impact over the boards after them is paramount to a deep playoff run.
