After completing its first undefeated Big East season since 2019 with a fourth straight conference tournament championship, the UConn women’s basketball team now turns all its attention toward March Madness.
Last season’s NCAA Tournament marked a historic low for the Huskies, ending an 14-year streak of Final Four appearances when they were upset by 3-seed Ohio State in the Sweet 16. But that was also without superstar Paige Bueckers, who carried UConn to the national championship game in 2022 just weeks after undergoing surgery for a tibial plateau fracture.
The Big East Player of the Year is back and better than ever in 2023-24, averaging a career-high 21.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.1 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. She is also shooting 53.8% from the field and 42.4% from 3-point range.
The Huskies (29-5) have been a 1- or 2-seed every season since 2005, but they are widely projected as a 3-seed in this year’s tournament. After getting sent to Seattle in 2023, it’s also uncertain which side of the bracket UConn will land on: the East Coast in Albany, New York or the West Coast site in Portland, Ore.
Predicting the top seeds
There’s zero question entering Selection Sunday that undefeated South Carolina will get the top overall ranking as the 1-seed in the Albany 1 Regional. Any path to the national title this season likely runs through the Gamecocks, who have five wins over current top-20 teams and delivered UConn its most recent loss, 83-65, on Feb. 11.
Iowa (29-4) also looks like a lock for a top seed after winning its third consecutive Big Ten title, which would mark the first time the Hawkeyes have earned a No. 1 during superstar Caitlin Clark’s career. The Pac-12 is likely to get two teams on the top line after USC (26-5) upset regular-season champion Stanford for the conference tournament title, though it’s also thanks to some help from around the country.
Ohio State (25-5) and Virginia Tech (24-7) were top contenders for a 1-seed at No. 2 and No. 5 respectively in the selection committee’s final rankings Feb. 29, but neither even made it to their conference tournament championship. The only team now that could knock Stanford (28-5) down to a 2-seed is Big 12 champion Texas (28-4), but the Cardinal had the second-strongest schedule in the country this year while the Longhorns rank 18th.
Which Big East teams make the cut?
The 2023 NCAA Tournament featured five Big East teams, the first time the conference had secured more than four bids since earning eight in 2013 when Notre Dame, Louisville and Syracuse were still members. However, the Big East looks poised for another dip in its national presence this season.
Behind No. 10 UConn, Creighton (25-5) is the only ranked team at No. 23 and has lost three times to the Huskies by 20-plus points. The Bluejays will easily get into the tournament, but most of the conference behind them is sitting on the bubble.
Recent bracketology projects three bids for the Big East with Marquette as one of the last four at-large selections to make the tournament. That positions the Golden Eagles to face a First Four play-in game for the 11-seed, likely against one of the lower-tier teams in the SEC or ACC. The only other Big East program with a case is Georgetown, which pulled off a remarkable run to the conference tournament championship as the 6-seed before falling to the Huskies. But the Hoyas (22-11) rank No. 86 in the NET after going 9-9 in conference play, so they’re a long shot at best.
How far could Fairfield go?
Less than 100 miles south of Storrs, the Fairfield women’s basketball team looks to continue making history after its most successful season ever in 2023-24. The Stags, led by Connecticut native Carly Thibault-DuDonis, received their first-ever vote in the AP Top 25 on Jan. 8 and now rank No. 25 in the country after going 26-1 in the regular season with their lone loss to Vanderbilt.
The Stags faced off against Niagara on Saturday in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference championship game.
Despite a nearly-pristine record, Fairfield is almost universally projected as a 13-seed ahead of Selection Sunday. Vanderbilt and St. John’s were the Stags’ only two opponents rated above quad 3 this season, and neither looks particularly impressive in hindsight after both teams struggled through conference play. But Fairfield is undeniably an upset threat if they land a good first-round matchup, especially considering the vulnerabilities that projected 4-seeds like Indiana and Virginia Tech showed during conference tournaments.
March Madness women’s Selection Sunday show: How to watch
Time: 8 p.m., Sunday
TV: ESPN
Streaming: ESPN+, ESPN app