The Patriots hit rock bottom.
The good news? They’re already positioning themselves for a rebound.
Under new coach Jerod Mayo, the Pats have overhauled a coaching staff that oversaw one of the league’s worst offenses last season. Their front office is now led by longtime outsider turned director of scouting Eliot Wolf, a former executive in Green Bay and assistant GM for the Browns. The Patriots are projected to hold the third-most cap space in the league heading into free agency, and are armed with significant draft capital, starting with the No. 3 overall pick.
However the Pats proceed, the stakes are significant.
The franchise hasn’t won a playoff game in five years, and owner Robert Kraft said he hopes their first-round pick positions the team “beautifully” for years to come. To put the Patriots back on track, the Herald is publishing a daily series with five offseason fixes that cover the draft, free agency and coaching.
No. 5: Restock the offensive tackle position
No. 4: Maximize front-office flexibility
No. 3: Revamp receiver group
The No. 1 key to fixing the Patriots’ passing attack will be to find a new quarterback, and (spoiler alert) we’ll get to that before this five-fixes series is over.
But the Patriots also need new blood at wide receiver and tight end, and they have to take a good, hard look at the players currently under contract with difficult decisions on the horizon.
Eight wide receivers are signed for the 2024 season: Kayshon Boutte, DeMario Douglas, DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton and future signings Kawaan Baker and T.J. Luther. Plus, Kendrick Bourne is a free agent who has expressed his desire to return to the Patriots as he mends a torn ACL. Jalen Reagor is also a free agent.
Just one tight end, La’Michael Pettway, is under contract. Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki and Pharaoh Brown are all free agents.
The Patriots certainly have bodies at wide receiver, but if they bring back Parker, Smith-Schuster and Thornton and re-sign Bourne, then beyond potential development for Boutte and Douglas, there’s little hope for this group to play significantly better in 2024, even under new coaching with an improvement at quarterback.
Parker took a step back in 2023 after signing a contract extension and managed just 33 catches for 394 yards with no touchdowns as the Patriots’ starting “X” receiver. Smith-Schuster signed a three-year, $25.5 million contract but caught just 29 passes for 260 yards with one touchdown in 11 games. Thornton didn’t even his the century mark in his second season. The 2022 second-round pick has been a bust. The Patriots could move forward with Douglas in the slot and a returning Bourne in the “Z” role, but they need an upgrade at “X.”
Five wide receivers entering free agency – Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Evans, Marquise Brown and Calvin Ridley – would immediately enter Gillette Stadium as No. 1 options with the Patriots. There’s a case to be made that Darnell Mooney, Gabriel Davis, Odell Beckham Jr., Tyler Boyd and Curtis Samuel would be upgrades, as well. The Patriots have plenty of cap space (over $66 million) and cash to spend.
It’s unlikely that all of those wide receiver options will actually hit the open market when the free agent negotiating period opens March 11, however. The franchise tag and contract extensions will take some receivers off the board.
Kyed: Remembering Hallie and covering the Patriots through unimaginable circumstances
Henry is regarded as the second-best tight end available in free agency by PFF behind Dalton Shultz. It could be difficult to re-sign Henry, though. He was previously making $12.5 million per year and likely won’t garner that much on the open market this offseason, meaning a pay cut would be required to stick around. Gesicki was a disappointment on a one-year, $4.5 million contract. Brown would be solid to bring back as a reserve.
The Patriots own the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and have one pick in every other round, including the 34th overall pick in the second round and the 68th overall pick in the third round.
If Wolf doesn’t take a quarterback at No. 3 overall, then Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., would be a worthy selection. Washington wide receiver Rome Odunze, LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers and Georgia tight end Brock Bowers are also regarded as potential top-10 selections.
This is thought to be a strong wide receiver class. LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr., UNC’s Devontez Walker, Texas’ Adonai Mitchell, Florida State’s Keon Coleman, Oregon’s Troy Franklin, Texas’ Xavier Worthy, Georgia’s Ladd McConkey and Western Kentucky’s Malachi Corley also rank in Daniel Jeremiah’s Top 50 rankings on NFL.com. One other tight end – Texas’ Ja’Tavion Sanders – is included on the list.
Harrison and Bowers are looked at as can’t-miss prospects. Harrison would likely need to be taken at No. 3 overall, while Bowers could potentially be selected with a trade-down.
If the Patriots add more wide receiver help via free agency or the draft (or a trade?), then players like Parker, Smith-Schuster, Thornton or Boutte could get released. The Patriots won’t receive any cap savings if they release Parker or Smith-Schuster before June 1.
The clearest path to improving the pass-catching group is for the Patriots to use a first-round pick on a rookie wide receiver or spend $20 million-plus on a free-agent option.