The Patriots hit rock bottom.
The good news? They’re already positioning themselves for a rebound.
Under new coach Jerod Mayo, the Pats have overhauled a coaching staff that oversaw one of the league’s worst offenses last season. Their front office is now led by longtime outsider turned director of scouting Eliot Wolf, a former executive in Green Bay and assistant GM for the Browns. The Patriots are projected to hold the third-most cap space in the league heading into free agency, and are currently armed with significant draft capital, starting with the No. 3 overall pick.
However the Pats proceed, the stakes are significant.
The franchise hasn’t won a playoff game in five years, and owner Robert Kraft said he hopes their first-round pick positions the team “beautifully” for years to come. To put the Patriots back on track, the Herald is publishing a daily series with five offseason fixes that cover the draft, free agency and coaching.
No. 5: Restock the offensive tackle position
No. 4: Maximize front-office flexibility
The Patriots have more cap room and more draft capital than most teams in the NFL.
Still, they can and should do better.
That’s how barren their roster has become, particularly on offense. The Pats’ only blue-chip starters play defense and come with question marks: edge rusher Matt Judon, who is coming off injury heading into his age-32 season, and former first-round cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who has all of four career starts to his name. Nowhere else on the roster do opponents point and say, “He’s a problem.”
Here’s how the Patriots can multiply those problems: stockpile draft picks and clear more cap space to sign top-shelf free agents.
Basically, they ought to maximize their optionality to accelerate the rebuild. Remove as many obstacles to signing, drafting and trading for the players you want as possible. Then, go get them.
Whether or not the Patriots create more cap room before free agency, it’s worth stopping to note they will spend significant cash in the coming years.
The CBA dictates teams must spend 90% of the salary cap within specific three- or four-year periods. The next such period begins in 2024 and runs through 2026. As originally explored by the Herald’s Doug Kyed in December, to reach 90% of the projected $242 million salary cap for 2024, the Patriots would need to spend roughly $88 million more in cash this offseason.
Meeting the 90% cash-spending threshold this season would prevent the Patriots from falling behind in the upcoming three-year cash-spending period. But with the amount of cap space they already have — roughly $66 million, which can be grown or manipulated through various means — they can spend far more than $88 million.
(Of note: cash spending counts money paid to players during a season, while the salary cap is a flexible bookkeeping mechanism for teams to stay compliant with league rules and account for player contracts.)
While the Patriots are not required to create extra cap space to spend this amount of cash (again, the cap is flexible), the more cap room, the better. Furthermore, the Pats only have 23 players under contract through the 2025 season, tied for third-fewest in the league. Not only do they need blue-chip players, they need players — period.
On to creating more cap space.
Kyed: Remembering Hallie and covering the Patriots through unimaginable circumstances
Whether or not veteran corner J.C. Jackson returns after sitting out the end of last year with mental health issues, it’s a virtual guarantee the Patriots will release him soon or adjust his contract. Cutting Jackson would create more than $13 million in extra cap room, per Over the Cap, pushing the Pats close to $80 million total. Jackson has no remaining guaranteed money on his deal.
Other cut candidates include defensive tackle Lawrence Guy, safety Adrian Phillips and special teamer Chris Board, who together would create approximately $6 million in cap room if released. Guy is in the twilight of his career, while Phillips dealt with a severely diminished role last season and Board underwhelmed. The Pats may opt to part with veteran receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and/or DeVante Parker, but cutting one or both before June 1 would not provide any cap relief.
As for the draft, the Patriots are scheduled to make one pick in all seven rounds. If they move back from No. 3 overall, presumably because they believe no quarterback available is worth the selection, they could easily add several extra picks. Following Rich Hill’s modern trade value chart, the Patriots could, for example, swap spots with Las Vegas at 13th overall and add second-, fourth- and fifth-round picks.
And that’s in a regular draft. If the Patriots have several quarterback-needy trade partners and choose to move back, they will likely command much more, including possibly a future first-round pick. Either way, the emergence of LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels as a legitimate top-5 prospect has helped the Patriots immensely in what was originally billed as a two-quarterback class.
Speaking of quarterbacks, trading Mac Jones is the Pats’ other surefire way to add more draft capital. Jones, who technically has two years left on his contract including a potential 2025 team option, should fetch a Day 3 pick in return. The Pats would be selling low on Jones, but reports indicate they’re willing to part ways.