Last September, Alexander Volkanovski celebrated, or perhaps merely acknowledged, his 35th birthday. With that milestone carries an ominous reality for UFC athletes who have competed in the promotion’s five lightest weight classes on the men’s side — flyweight, bantamweight, featherweight, lightweight and welterweight.
History has been unkind to fighters who have reached 35 years of age as it has served as a dramatic benchmark for championship failure and the decline of fighters in the lower weight classes.
In the UFC’s 31 years of promoting fights, those athletes have amassed a 2-21 record in championship bouts contested at 170 pounds and below in the men’s divisions and 1-21 in title bouts where they are competing against younger opponents.
This stat is often referred to as “The Luke Thomas stat” as it is frequently referenced by my friend and colleague who hosts Morning Kombat and The Luke Thomas Live Chat. However, the origin of the stat was first brought to light by X user @VolkaraFrance.
Volkanovski, who is already 0-1 in such contests after suffering his lone UFC knockout loss in a rematch with Islam Makhachev this past October at UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi, having moved up a weight class to try to capture gold in a second division after unsuccessfully attempting to do so earlier in the year.
The current 145-pound king is also well aware of “the over 35 curse” as he put it when showing off his comedic chops in a commercial for an Australian sportsbook in which the popular champion pokes fun at himself.
This weekend at UFC 298, Volkanovski will put both his title and unblemished featherweight record on the line when he faces undefeated challenger Ilia Topuria in Anaheim, Calif.
To better understand why 35 has been a virtual death knell for the championship aspirations of athletes competing at 125, 135, 145, 155 and 170 pounds, we will take a deep dive into each matchup and unpack some of the finer details.
FLYWEIGHT
• Feb. 29, 2020: Deiveson Figueiredo defeats Joseph Benavidez (35) by technical knockout – for vacant title
• July 19, 2020: Figueiredo defeats Benavidez (35) by submission – for vacant title
Having fallen short in his two prior flyweight championship opportunities against Demetrious Johnson, Benavidez had the opportunity to make it right after Johnson left the UFC for ONE Championship and vacated the title. In the first bout, Figueiredo missed weight and was ineligible to win the belt, but had Benavidez won, he would have been crowned champion.
Benavidez fell short on both occasions, making him one of the best UFC fighters to never win a championship despite owning several flyweight records, including being tied with Johnson for the most wins in divisional history. Despite giving Johnson all that he could handle in the inaugural flyweight championship bout, Figueiredo defeated Benavidez authoritatively in both outings.
• Jan. 21, 2023: Brandon Moreno defeats Deiveson Figueiredo (35) by technical knockout (doctor’s stoppage) at UFC 283 – challenger wins
In the fourth of their four-fight championship series, Moreno would get the last laugh when he met a 35-year-old Figueiredo with the series tied up with each fighter having a win and a bout that resulted in a draw. It would be Figueiredo’s flyweight swan song as he would make the move to bantamweight for his subsequent bout.
BANTAMWEIGHT
• June 4, 2016: Dominick Cruz defeats Urijah Faber (37) by unanimous decision at UFC 199
• May 9, 2020: Henry Cejudo defeats Dominick Cruz (35) by technical knockout at UFC 249
• Oct. 22, 2022: Aljamain Sterling defeats TJ Dillashaw (36) by technical knockout at UFC 280
• May 6, 2023: Aljamain Sterling defeats Henry Cejudo (35) by split decision at UFC 288
Both Cruz and Cejudo would be on the right and wrong side of this equation with Cruz defeating his arch nemesis Faber and, following a more than three-year absence from the Octagon, a loss to Cejudo, who, after a three-year hiatus of his own, would return to action with a loss to Sterling.
FEATHERWEIGHT
• Oct. 8, 2011: Jose Aldo defeats Kenny Florian (35) by unanimous decision at UFC 136
• July 27, 2019: Max Holloway defeats Frankie Edgar (37) by unanimous decision at UFC 240
• April 9, 2022: Alexander Volkanovski defeats “Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung (35) by technical knockout at UFC 273
• Feb. 12, 2023: Yair Rodriguez defeats Josh Emmett (37) by submission at UFC 284 – for interim title
Outside of Rodriguez’s win over Emmett for an interim belt, one thing that stands out about the 35 and older fighters that suffered losses to reigning champions is that all three of these challengers were sizeable underdogs and also selected circumstantially because they were either trying their hand at a new division (Florian) or because the champions had already beaten more worthy challengers (Edgar and Zombie).
Those circumstances make featherweight a difficult division to analyze for those older than 35 in title bouts because they were faced with what could be interpreted as a substantial skill gap in addition to the age gap. Those facts are what make Volkanovski’s upcoming defence against Topuria somewhat unique.
LIGHTWEIGHT
• May, 2020: Justin Gaethje defeats Tony Ferguson (36) by technical knockout at UFC 249 – for interim title
• May 15, 2021: Charles Oliveira defeats Michael Chandler (35) by technical knockout at UFC 262 – for vacant title
• Oct. 21, 2023: Islam Makhachev defeats Alexander Volkanovski (35) by knockout at UFC 294
The small lightweight sample size of athletes over 35 competing for the title is very surprising considering how much longer the 155-pound division has been around compared to the divisions we have previously explored. In fact, all three of these bouts have happened in this decade.
Since losing to Gaethje, Ferguson would go on to drop his next six, Chandler’s lone win since his loss to Oliveira was over Ferguson, and Volkanovski will compete for the first time since the loss on Saturday.
WELTERWEIGHT
• Nov. 22, 2002: Matt Hughes defeats Gil Castillo (37) by technical knockout (cut) at UFC 40
• July 29, 2017: Tyron Woodley (35) defeats Demian Maia (39) by unanimous decision at UFC 214
• Sept. 8, 2018: Tyron Woodley (36) defeats Darren Till by submission at UFC 228
• March 2, 2019: Kamaru Usman defeats Tyron Woodley (36) by unanimous decision at UFC 235 – challenger wins
• July 12, 2020: Kamaru Usman defeats Jorge Masvidal (35) by unanimous decision at UFC 251
• April 24, 2021: Kamaru Usman defeats Jorge Masvidal (36) by knockout at UFC 261
• Aug. 20, 2022: Leon Edwards defeats Kamaru Usman (35) by knockout at UFC 278 – challenger wins
• March 18, 2023: Leon Edwards defeats Kamaru Usman (35) by majority decision at UFC 286
• Dec. 16, 2023: Leon Edwards defeats Colby Covington (35) by unanimous decision at UFC 296
Welterweight is where this statistic becomes interesting because it accounts for nine of the 23 instances or roughly 39 per cent of the matchups where fighters 35 or older have competed in championship bouts in these selected weight classes.
If welterweight is put aside, fighters over 35 in the lightweight weight class and below have gone 0-14, which would make a Volkanovski win a true statistical anomaly.
Another interesting fact is that aside from welterweight, Deiveson Figueiredo is the only reigning champion over 35 years of age to attempt to defend a title in the weight classes of lightweight and below. Volkanovski will join him on Saturday.
Welterweight is also the only weight class where a fighter over the age of 35 recorded a win, which Woodley did twice during his reign as champion, once over an older Maia and again over a younger Till. He has been the lone exception to the rule when it comes to fighters over the age of 35 competing in such title bouts.
Data that supports a potential Volkanovski win:
Now that we have parsed the data, what can we take away from it that supports Volkanovski becoming an outlier and overcoming these historically bad results for fighters over 35 competing in these divisions?
For starters, we cannot discount that just under three months shy of his 35th birthday Volkanovski absolutely put the hurt on Yair Rodriguez, a substantial challenger for the title. Should we expect that just seven months later his skills will have diminished by a sizable margin?
Another thing to consider is that in the 23 instances above, only five involved a champion over the age of 35 and just two had the champion retaining the title, albeit with one of those wins coming against an older opponent. This is important because the overall sample size of 35-year-old champions in the lighter weight classes is sparse overall.
The 35-year-old or over fighter was the favourite to win in just six of the 23 bouts. Of those six, a reigning champion was the favourite on three occasions (Woodley vs. Till, Woodley vs. Usman, Usman vs. Edwards) and they went 1-2 in those matchups.
Outside of welterweight, there are no instances of a champion over 35 in a lower weight class being the favourite against a younger opponent. Volkanovski, should he close as the favourite, would be the first. Figueiredo, the lone defending champion over 35 in the aforementioned weight classes, was an underdog.
While that does not necessarily support a Volkanovski win, it shows that while most fighters over 35 were the underdogs, he would be favoured to win.
The younger fighter has been victorious in 15 of the 21 featherweight championship bouts (interim or undisputed) in UFC history, however five of the six instances where the older fighter won, it was Volkanovski.
The sheer difficulty of holding a championship once a fighter hits 35 years of age at these lighter weight classes is proof that Volkanovski is a special athlete and why him being the fighter to buck this trend cannot be dismissed.
Data that supports a potential Topuria win:
Perhaps the most captivating argument for Topuria handing Volkanovski his first loss at featherweight is that Volkanovski is already on the wrong side of the 35-plus statistic given that he is 0-1 since qualifying.
The circumstances of that loss make it more difficult to give it much oxygen, given that Volkanovski took the fight against Makhachev, who had already beaten him earlier in the year, on very short notice and was fighting up a weight class.
Topuria has roughly 90 minutes of total cage time in his nearly nine-year professional career, where Volkanovski surpasses that runtime in the last three years alone.
Conclusion:
Volkanovski has beaten arguably three of the four greatest featherweights (excluding himself) in Aldo, Chad Mendes and Max Holloway three times.
The 35 years and older statistic for fighters competing at welterweight and below is difficult to overlook when it comes to this matchup.
Despite Volkanovski’s long list of achievements and evidence that points to him being a special outlier, the bigger concern should be his quick turnaround following his only UFC stoppage loss and the admission of his lack of preparedness for said bout against Makhachev.
Saturday will show us whether he was able to manifest that loss into motivation or whether turning 35 yet again makes Volkanovski the latest unfortunate statistic on this list and results in his first-ever featherweight loss.
