Ahead of each UFC event in 2024, UFC reporter Aaron Bronsteter (@aaronbronsteter), producer Dan Fernandes (@DanFernandes__) and writer/editor Mike Johnston (@MikeyJ_MMA) will attempt to beat the odds by perusing various sportsbooks and making four betting predictions: one lock each to combine for a three-leg parlay, plus one additional favourite, underdog and dart throw wager.
After a one-week break following an epic UFC 300 event, the action returns to the Apex for Saturday’s 13-bout Fight Night card. The UFC’s next two events are headlined by flyweight matchups with contenders Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez stepping into the spotlight this weekend.
Full fight card and predictions below.
MAIN CARD
— Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez
— Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov
— Ariane Lipski vs. Karine Silva
— Austen Lane vs. Jhonata Diniz
— Jonathan Pearce vs. David Onama
— Tim Means vs. Uros Medic
PRELIMINARY CARD
— Rani Yahya vs. Victor Henry
— Austin Hubbard vs. Michal Figlak
— Don’Tale Mayes vs. Caio Machado
— Marnic Mann vs. Ketlen Souza
— Chris Padilla vs. James Llontop
— Ivana Petrovic vs. Liang Na
— Gabriel Benitez vs. Maheshate Hayisaer
CAGE LOCKS
Which outcome do we think is the absolute safest bet on the card? Each will pick our “lock” of the week to put together a “three-headed monster parlay.”
Aaron: Lane vs. Diniz does not go the distance -800 (BetWay)
Two heavyweights with 22 combined MMA fights with only one of which that has gone beyond the first round? Sign me up for fight does not go the distance.
Dan: Victor Henry to win outright -420 (BetRivers)
Look for Victor Henry to bounce back in style from the infamous groin kick suffered last time out in a no-contest with Javid Basharat. Rani Yahya is a gifted grappler in the twilight of his MMA career and could struggle to cope with Henry’s all-around game. I expect Henry to get his hand raised and the moneyline agrees.
Mike: Spann vs. Guskov under 2.5 round -650 (DraftKings)
It happened again. I messed up the final leg of our UFC 300 parlay. I celebrated early along with Jalin Turner after he rocked “Money” Moicano and our streak extended to three losses in a row. Gross. This could be a finish-filled card and I can’t see this co-main event needing more than 12.5 minutes.
Three-headed Monster Parlay Odds: -165 (to win $60.72)
2024 Record: 4-9
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$391.73
OUR FAVOURITE FAVOURITE
Which favourite with odds shorter than -200 are we most confident in?
Aaron: Lane vs. Diniz does not start Rd 2 -176 (FanDuel)
I’m going to double down on this one. As mentioned in my write up for the parlay, 22 combined fights, only one second-round appearance among them. This one ends early.
Dan: Caio Machado -115 (Bet Way)
Machado has been training with Karl Williams over the last few weeks and his conditioning should give him the edge if he can withstand and early barrage from Don’tale Mayes. I expect Bigfoot to get his hand raised at the end of this one, perhaps via score cards if Mayes doesn’t gas out.
Mike: Matheus Nicolau -180 (DraftKings)
The Brazilian had been training for a matchup with Manel Kape for months before the recent switch to Perez so we’ll see if the style change messes with his rhythm in his first fight since a knockout loss one year ago.
Aaron’s favourite record: 8-5
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: +$31.53
Dan’s favourite record: 8-5
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$9.39
Mike’s favourite record: 6-7
Total 2024 winnings on $100 bets: -$313.93
HUNGRIEST DOG
Which underdog on the card are we most confident will get their hand raised in victory?
Aaron: Gabriel Benitez +164 (FanDuel)
Benitez has not had the best run of late, going 1-3 in his last four. However, he has fought a much higher level of competition than Maheshate, who has had back-to-back lacklustre performances in his own right. This is a good spot for Benitez to show that he still has something left in the tank at 35 years old. If he wins, perhaps he fights in The Sphere on Mexican Independence Day, but a loss likely results in him being cut. Stakes are high and I always like to back fighters in those circumstances.
Dan: Arianne Lipski +135 (Caesars)
Karine Silva is 3-0 in the UFC but Lipski has also won her last three bouts. Lipski is the better striker and could use her leg reach advantage to keep Karine Silva at distance. If they end up locking up, Lipski can hold her own, and might edge this one on significant strikes landed. At plus money, this is worth a shot.
Mike: David Onama +140 (Bodog)
We haven’t seen him since last summer when his hands looked great against Gabriel Santos and this matchup with Pearce could give him some openings.
Aaron’s underdog record: 7-6
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$411
Dan’s underdog record: 3-10
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$595
Mike’s underdog record: 6-7
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$57
DART THROW
What’s a longshot play with odds of +500 or longer that we like?
Aaron: Na Liang by Submission or Decision +550 (FanDuel)
Liang has stuck around the UFC despite going 0-3 in her UFC tenure because she is an action fighter who produces exciting fights that seldom go to the judges. Her calling card on the regional scene in China was her armbar, which perhaps she is finally able to make work for her in her UFC career and in women’s MMA, there is always a high possibility of the fight going to a decision. I’ll take Liang to win by one of those two methods in a volatile fight.
Dan: Alex Perez by Decision +550 (FanDuel)
If Perez is crafty enough on Saturday to avoid Matheus Nicolau’s KO power, which I think he is, the main event could go the distance. Perez’s wrestling prowess could steal a few rounds. Here’s hoping he can just about edge it on the scorecards.
Mike: Matheus Nicolau to win by Submission in Rounds 2, 3 or 4 +550 (FanDuel)
Since he’s coming off his first KO loss in five years, I wonder if we see the jiu-jitsu black belt look to more aggressively pursue the ground game and see if he can impose his will on a fighter with multiple submission losses.
Aaron’s dart throw record: 1-11-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$600
Dan’s dart throw record: 1-12
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: -$500
Mike’s dart throw record: 4-8-1
Total 2024 Winnings on $100 bets: +$2,500
